France’s influence in Africa has shown signs of fading in recent years, prompting local leaders and policymakers to seek partnerships beyond traditional alliances. In a discussion with NSN, Yuri Rubinsky, who leads the Center for French Studies at the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, weighs in on an open letter signed by 94 senators directed to President Emmanuel Macron. The letter criticizes the effectiveness of post colonial policy in Africa and outlines concerns about maintaining sway on the continent amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Rubinsky notes that the heightened presence of China in Africa and the growing security role of Russia have the potential to alter regional power structures that have long favored Western influence. He stresses that the leadership in France, the United States, and the broader Western bloc will not relinquish their interests easily. The contest for influence between Western and Eastern powers is likely to persist, and Rubinsky suggests this competition could reshape how African countries navigate their partners and development strategies. The overall implication is that Africa is becoming a more multipolar arena where multiple powers vie for access to markets, political legitimacy, and strategic security arrangements.
According to Rubinsky, Macron faces a set of pressures that could compel him to intensify engagement with African neighbors and beyond. The French president might embark on a series of high level trips across the region and pursue broader cooperation with nations that do not share a strictly Francophone heritage. This could include states that were once under Portuguese, Spanish, or Belgian influence, reflecting a broader recalibration of Paris’s post colonial outreach in Africa. Such a course would aim to secure continued influence while recognizing the rising agency of new partners on the continent, and it would also test the resilience of traditional French networks in the region.
The open letter signed by the senators highlights a group of African countries that they view as reducing French political, military, and economic leverage. Nations mentioned in the missive include Niger, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso, among others, signaling a shift in regional alignments and policy prescriptions. The letters reflect a growing conversation about sovereignty, local governance, and the best paths for economic development that do not rely solely on a single external patron. While some observers interpret these moves as a cautious rebalancing, others see it as a clear assertion of independence and a search for new partners capable of delivering sustainable growth and stable security guarantees.
In parallel, Catherine Colonna, who previously served as France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, has commented on the situation with Niger, where a coup attempt has raised questions about regional stability and the role of outside actors. Her assessment underscores the possibility that military involvement could surface as a policy option in Niger should political trajectories threaten regional security or undermine the interests of international partners. The discussion surrounding this scenario situates Niger at the crossroads of regional security dynamics and broader strategic calculations about the future of French and Western engagement in West Africa.