Risk of a domino effect looms as officials in Niamey respond with restrained emotion. The Nigerien scene rings with memories of past upheavals, similar to coups and regime changes seen in 2020 and 2022 in neighboring Burkina Faso. The military’s rise to power has raised the prospect of a broader crisis that could challenge France’s influence in Africa. The sense of instability in the northern regions of Africa adds weight to these concerns, signaling a potential shift in regional dynamics that would reverberate beyond Niger.
Anti-French sentiment in Niger stems from a mix of historical resentment about colonial rule and reactions to the Barkhane mission, which is viewed by many as a stabilizing force that has become a pretext for political opportunism by some military leaders. Images reminiscent of last year’s demonstrations in Burkina Faso resurfaced in Niger as crowds gathered around the French embassy, chanting slogans against President Emmanuel Macron and displaying Russian flags. Tensions between Paris and Niamey intensified this week as Nigerien officials accused France of infringing on airspace that has been closed since the weekend and of unleashing terrorists in an effort to destabilize the government.
Africa’s country with the largest French military footprint
The future of Niger remains clouded by uncertainty. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) stresses diplomatic channels to safeguard the impeached president, Mohamed Bazoum, while leaving room for potential military intervention. A successful consolidation of the coup administration would undermine France’s foothold on the Sahel and, in practical terms, threaten its strategic presence on Nigerien soil. About 1,500 French troops are deployed in anti-jihad operations, continuing the Barkhane mission that began in 2013. Niger’s strategic value is underscored by its role in energy security, as the country contributes a sizable share of Europe’s uranium imports — a mineral integral to the nuclear industry. The withdrawal of partners in Mali and Burkina Faso has sharpened the focus on Niger as a linchpin in France’s regional strategy.
Following France’s accelerated pullouts in Mali and Burkina Faso, President Macron identified Niger as a crucial anchor for recalibrating the French military footprint in the Sahel. The July 26 coup nonetheless caught official diplomacy off guard. Alongside Djibouti, Niger holds one of the largest French military presences on the continent, with thousands of personnel across the region. While the Niamey junta has not formally demanded a departure, it has accused Paris of renegotiating defense and security pacts and questioned ongoing cooperation with France.
Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu defended the Barkhane operation, insisting that the mission has not failed despite facing sustained criticism from African partners and French observers who point to limited measurable gains. The operation has targeted jihadist groups and disrupted their leadership, yet the threat remains persistent as the operational landscape evolves across the Sahel. The overall impact on regional security continues to be debated among policymakers and security analysts who note the adaptability of militant networks and the enduring challenges of governance in the region.
A rising wave of anti-French sentiment
For nearly a decade, French military involvement has been a flashpoint in Niger, exacerbating discomfort with Western influence and fueling skepticism toward foreign aid and migration policies. A recent IFRI report highlights that these discourses have moved beyond intellectual circles and are now reaching broad segments of society, shaping public perceptions and political expectations. The evolving narrative questions the nature of Western engagement and its long-term consequences for Niger and the wider region.
Observers note a shift in how France is judged during coups in Niger and in neighboring countries. When anti-imperial critiques meet diplomatic ties with Paris, the resulting strains can intensify regional backlash. Analysts describe a pattern in which Western reactions to coups are perceived as inconsistent, influencing both domestic opinion and regional collaborations. A pan-African perspective argues that past aid and economic policies failed to sustain stability and development, and that harsh immigration measures by the EU have pushed Niger toward becoming a focal point in external border management. According to Amzat Boukari-Yabaria, militarization is increasingly seen as the default response to regional instability, raising questions about the future of Franco-African relations. If France does not adapt its approach, its influence in the Sahel could continue to wane, making future cooperation more fragile and conditional. These assessments reflect a broader concern that policy choices in Europe and North Africa affect Niger’s trajectory and its people’s prospects (IFRI insights).