Public opinion on the opposition coalition’s promises
Poll results show a divided view among participants about whether the opposition coalition, consisting of KO, Third Way, and the New Left, will deliver on its election commitments. A little more than half of respondents believe the coalition will fulfill some or all of its promises, while about a third disagree. This snapshot comes from a survey conducted by SW Research for rp.pl, reflecting attitudes among a broad cross-section of adults living in Poland.
When respondents were asked to judge if the coalition would keep its programmatic pledges, 13.4 percent answered affirmatively with unequivocal support of all promises. A larger share, 38.3 percent, expressed cautious optimism, saying the coalition would fulfill some promises but not all of them. In total, 31.7 percent of participants believed the government would fall short on its stated commitments. A small group, 4.9 percent, felt there were no concrete electoral promises to form a government around. Lastly, 11.7 percent of respondents did not offer an opinion on this question.
The data also reveal demographic differences in confidence about promised reforms. Women expressed greater confidence than men: 41 percent versus 36 percent. Urban residents in bigger cities showed a higher likelihood of anticipating partial fulfillment of the coalition’s agenda, with respondents from cities of 200,000 inhabitants or more reporting stronger belief in partial implementation than the overall pool. The share of respondents who believed in partial fulfillment rose to as much as 50 percent in cities with populations up to 499,000.
The SW Research survey was conducted with online panel participants and took place on November 7–8, 2023. The analysis included 800 internet users aged 18 and over. The sampling relied on random quotas, and the final weights adjusted the sample to mirror the larger population of Poles aged 18 and older, in terms of key characteristics related to the study topic. Socio-demographic variables were used to calibrate the weighting to better reflect the demographic makeup of the adult population.
READ ALSO:
– Our interview with Prof. Jabłoński about the coalition agreement, where broad generalities were noted and keeping promises could mean holding PiS to account
– A critique of opposition credibility in the coalition process, including questions about the depth and detail of the agreement
— Online commentary on the opposition’s coalition document, with phrases like a political manifesto and watershed moments used by critics
Sources: SW Research for rp.pl, wPolityce