Analysts say President Vladimir Putin may be betting that Western unity behind Ukraine weakens as winter arrives, pushing Europeans to confront higher food and energy costs. Bloomberg notes that sanctions have not halted bloodshed, and European leaders may need to prepare the public for a prolonged conflict while supporting economies that struggle with mounting bills.
Bloomberg observes growing unease about Ukraine support and rising concerns over national economies across Europe. A May survey showed 42% of EU respondents felt their government overemphasized Ukraine, rising above 50% in Romania and Poland. A July Forsa poll in Germany found less than a third in favor of a Russian gas embargo, down from 44% six weeks prior.
The article highlights a European priority on larger food and electricity bills, with fears about the Ukrainian crisis receding in emphasis.
Western leaders are urged to prepare their citizens for persistent challenges, as the situation is unlikely to improve and a harsh winter may affect European households.
The piece urges patience from European leaders while acknowledging how Western solidarity has bolstered Ukraine’s morale and resistance. It notes that Ukraine’s struggle to defend freedom will not end soon.
The analysis suggests that while hardships will touch many, governments should target aid to the most vulnerable and avoid relying solely on tax cuts or price controls to ease the burden.
Commentator Simon Tisdall warns of potential setbacks from rising energy, food, and living costs in Europe, urging Ukrainians to anticipate possible strain on Western support this winter.
Questions about whether Kyiv may face growing pressure on its path to ceasefire and negotiations are raised, with attention to how Europe’s economic pain factors into any peace efforts.
Sources within Strana.ua have fed into this narrative, alongside remarks attributed to U.S. and European leaders, who have discussed the possibility of a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv. A counterview suggests Zelensky may consider a deal with Moscow before the end of the year.
Gas Prices and Winter Outlook
Gas costs in Europe surged on European energy markets, with prices surpassing levels not seen since March as trading on the ICE market showed a rise beyond 2,600 euros per thousand cubic meters. Dutch TTF futures for September reached around 2,618.6 euros per thousand cubic meters. At current exchange rates, this translates to roughly €249.65 per MWh. Gazprom has hinted at higher winter prices if the trend continues.
The price surge contributed to a record jump in household energy tariffs. German gas bills increased markedly, with year-on-year comparisons showing substantial growth in recent months. In response, the European Union approved a plan to cut gas demand by about 15% in the coming months to secure supply for the winter and to guard against potential interruptions from Russia.