The price of electricity fell 0.4% this Wednesday to 236.14 Euro/MWh
Electricity markets across Europe are showing a record-like pattern. Prices have surged toward the 500 euro per megawatt hour mark in several major economies, with Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom experiencing historic highs. Notable peaks reached 552; 540.8; 539.4 and 485.1 euros per MWh in those countries, while France touched 552.8 euros and Italy around 538 euros. The jump in raw material costs, especially natural gas, continues to drive these movements. The Dutch TTF, the main benchmark for Europe, rose by 5.5% after Tuesday to above 230 euros per MWh.
Differentiation appears in Spain and Portugal, aided by the gas price ceiling and lower reliance on Russia, which has helped separate their gas markets from the European reference. The gap in fuel prices between these markets and the rest of Europe stood at about 50% on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the price of electricity in Spain, including tender and compensation costs, stood at 236.14 euros per MWh, roughly half of the levels seen in the larger markets.
The Baltic states also deserve attention. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania could see prices hitting around 4,000 euros per MWh between the hours of 5 and 6 pm, according to European regulations. Energy analyst Carlos Martín Graña explains that this spike occurs because those nations do not have enough supply to meet demand. These countries are more exposed to fluctuations linked to Russia, and their grids are interconnected with Russian and Belarusian systems. The daily average is expected to be 682.05; 823.98; and 823.98 Euros per megawatt hour, in that order.
Another line of note concerns the price trend for winter. Prices are already under pressure as a broader energy squeeze tightens across the continent. Factors include reduced nuclear output in France due to plant shutdowns and lower hydropower from drought conditions spanning much of Europe. Gas prices have climbed to daily highs, yet intraday prices remain far from the peak seen earlier in March, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The key worry for many observers is how winter supply and pricing will unfold. In Germany and France, forecasts for the fourth quarter show prices that remain elevated, ranging from around 500 euros per MWh in Germany to potentially exceeding 1,000 euros in France. These numbers feed into the futures market, where producers and investors trade contracts to secure deliveries at specified times and prices. The question is whether futures will align with actual supply when the time comes.
Analysts emphasize that cheaper energy is possible if supply conditions improve. Carlos Martín Graña notes that abundant energy would push prices down, while Francisco Valverde, an advisor to Menta Energía, cautions about the likelihood of further European moves, including mechanisms to reduce gas involvement in wholesale electricity markets. In any case, Europe’s market structure means that fears of shortages tend to drive price spikes, sometimes independent of the underlying commodity value. The overarching theme remains: energy security and price stability are interlinked, shaping policy and market decisions across the continent. [citation: Enerjoin consultant Carlos Martín Graña] [citation: Francisco Valverde, advisor to Menta Energía]