Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have agreed to establish a defensive line along their eastern borders, extending to the border with Russia, according to sources familiar with the plan.
Tallinn plans to install fortifications comprising around 600 concrete bunkers, mainly in Estonia’s Ida-Virumaa region and the southeastern part of the country. Some will also be placed near Lake Peipsi. Each shelter is designed to withstand a direct hit from a 152 mm caliber projectile.
Each bunker accommodates ten occupants. The structures measure about 30 to 35 square meters and include sleeping areas inside.
The distance from the border for these concrete bunkers has not yet been finalized. Work on the fortifications is slated to begin in the first half of the next year.
Funding for the shelters is projected to be around 60 million euros.
Protect from the first meter
Kaido Tiitus, advisor to the Vice-Rector of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, noted that NATO views Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as a single operational zone. He stressed the need for physical barriers at the border to deter potential aggression from the outset.
Tiitus emphasized that Russia remains the primary security threat to Estonia. While the war in Ukraine has reduced Russia’s offensive capacity, estimates suggest that Moscow could restore it within two to three years. He argued for heightened preparedness to raise the cost of any attack on Estonia.
In his view, shelters are needed to slow an advancing force at the border and buy time for allied reinforcements to arrive.
The advisor recalled that Estonia has already built protective structures in the east in recent years, but those facilities operated during peacetime and did not prove effective in wartime conditions.
Colonel Tarmo Kundla, Chief of Operations for the Estonian Defense Forces General Staff, noted that future shelters would likely create multiple defensive zones near the border. Building them will require landowner agreements. Over the coming weeks, the Ministry of Defense will begin conversations with local residents. Landowners might be asked to permit use of the shelter as a cellar or storage for potatoes, for instance.
The General Staff acknowledged that shelters alone would not repel an attack. It was noted that tank obstacles, mines and barbed wire — referred to as dragon’s teeth — would be kept ready near the eastern border and could be deployed immediately if needed.
Concerns and Predictions
In an interview with The Times on January 16, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas warned that Russia could threaten European and NATO borders within three years, urging Europe to prepare for a renewed military threat on NATO’s eastern flank.
Predictions centered on scenarios in which a ceasefire in Ukraine stabilizes the conflict, leaving the Baltic states highly vulnerable. Estonia’s plan also includes ideas to support Ukraine’s efforts against Russia, including practical guidance on assisting Kyiv without hesitation.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna indicated in November that the country’s border with Russia could be closed if necessary, a measure discussed to support Finland. Shortly before that statement, reinforced concrete barriers known as dragon’s teeth appeared at the Narva border crossing. Tallinn accused Russia of allowing migrants to cross Estonia’s western border illegally.
Alexander Solfrank, head of NATO Joint Logistics Command, spoke about the need for a free military transit zone, a concept akin to a military Schengen. He said that central European powers faced regulatory obstacles to moving troops and ammunition, and that a unified alliance would address these issues. The Kremlin responded by warning that such ideas could heighten tensions in Europe, arguing they would complicate security dynamics rather than stabilize them.
Attribution: Baltic Defense Analysis