Watching the scene of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers crossing into Ukraine on TV is unsettling. How does a citizen in a small country on Russia’s border feel when faced with an army far larger and a region with a history of occupation that stretches back generations? In Estonia, the fear of aggressive neighbors is real, yet there is a deep sense of solidarity with Ukraine. The country belongs to NATO, and that alliance offers a protective framework that helps make fear bearable.
The Estonian ambassador receives visitors over coffee bearing the Atlantic Alliance emblem. Mariin Ratnik from Tartu, Estonia, takes a moment to describe the mood of his country. Estonia, a nation of about 1.3 million people and roughly 45,000 square kilometers in size, presents a postcard-perfect image of forests, lakes, and snowy landscapes. Its economy shows a healthy GDP per capita around €24,000, and language and culture reflect a strong connection to its Nordic and European neighbors.
Ratnik explains that his government and citizens are preparing for potential aggression from Russia. The trauma runs deep. The years from 1940 to 1991 brought Soviet occupation, a period marked by repression, deportations, and widespread fear. The memory of those decades remains a pressing factor in Estonia’s security mindset.
February 24 marks a turning point. It is the anniversary of Estonia as an independent state and the day Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. It is also a moment for reflection within Estonia. A morning routine at home turned into a news-driven conversation with a Ukrainian colleague who visited to discuss the unfolding events. The country then convened a meeting with neighbors Latvia and a quick look at the security landscape together.
“People are worried”
Kristi Raik, a leading Estonian expert on foreign policy, speaks about the impact on families and communities. From his Tallinn office, he notes that many children and young people follow the war closely, discuss it with friends, and watch disturbing footage. He believes the younger generation will carry these memories forward as they shape attitudes toward security and freedom.
War is a pervasive topic in Estonia, not merely a matter of moral stance but a concern about its possibilities and consequences. The fear is not that an invasion is imminent but that the conflict could influence the security order in Europe, depending on outcomes in Ukraine. The shared experience of occupation informs the sense of empathy with Ukraine and the determination to defend democratic values.
Raik draws clear parallels between Estonia’s occupation and the current crisis in Ukraine. He recalls the violence of Soviet rule, the Red Army, torture, and mass deportations, and notes that Estonians remember the pressure to speak Russian and the attempt to erode national identity. The memory of loss drives a cautious and resolute approach to security and sovereignty.
Solution: NATO
The fear is real, yet Estonia is part of the European Union and NATO. The presence of troops from Britain, Denmark, France, and Spain stationed in Latvia reinforces a sense of protection. Estonia believes that joining NATO provides a security guarantee under Article 5, ensuring collective defense and a safer path forward.
Estonia maintains a modest armed force with two professional brigades and a NATO battalion of roughly 7,000 soldiers. Military service spans about a year for men and is voluntary for women, supported by a defense corps of reservists. Even with this structure, the country knows its protection is contingent on alliance strength and readiness.
The border with Russia lies near the middle of a large lake that serves as a natural barrier, while land borders are fortified with fences, radar, and motion-detection systems. Estonia continues to upgrade its defenses and deterrence capabilities to deter aggression and provide strategic depth in the Baltics.
At a NATO summit, Ratnik emphasizes the need for stronger protection of Baltic allies. The alliance should provide more battalions and reliable war material, including air defense systems. Estonia lacks geographic depth, leaving little room for retreat. The goal is to prevent a quick takeover and avoid the kind of brutality seen in Bucha. The resilience demonstrated in Ukraine underscores the threat and the importance of a robust alliance in safeguarding regional stability.
Recent NATO exercises in the Baltic states involved Marines from the United States Sixth Fleet and Estonian troops along with colleagues from other nations. The drills focused on integrated defenses against air, sea, land, and cyber threats and served as a practical demonstration of allied coordination in a volatile region.
NATO has stated it will not permit Russian advances to gain even a centimeter within allied territories. Analysts note that any gains by Russia could embolden further aggression. The aim is to prevent any shift in Europe’s security architecture toward a sphere dominated by larger powers and the use of force to redefine borders. Realism, in this sense, means ensuring Russia’s defeat while preserving sovereignty and freedom for European nations.
Government crisis in the middle of the war
Domestic unity is strong in Estonia: the overwhelming position supports defeating Russia and negotiating a peace on Ukraine’s terms if necessary. Yet a small fraction of the Russian-speaking community in Estonia holds sympathies for Moscow. Estimates show that about one in four Estonians speaks Russian as their first language, with some residents of Ukrainian origin and others Russian by heritage. The memory of occupation deepens the complexity of integration and identity for this diverse population.
Estonian policies have pursued integration through parallel education systems in Estonian and Russian. The program has succeeded in many ways but has not bridged all divides. Some Russian speakers remain connected to Russian media, though the onset of war has disrupted and altered many signals. A portion of the Russian-speaking population remains pro-Russian, while others are critical of Putin. For most, the question is how to move forward without sacrificing national cohesion or compromising personal safety.
In domestic politics, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced the end of the governing coalition, citing disagreements over family benefits. The security situation in Europe makes it necessary to align Estonia’s internal politics with the country’s broader security priorities. The ongoing war has become a central factor shaping political choices and public sentiment, reinforcing the historical memory of neighboring aggression and the importance of steadfast alliances.