With the campaign accelerating in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, parties are chasing new voters while also trying to mobilize and hold onto their current supporters. How stable are the loyalties of different voter groups? Which blocs might shift, and who can count on their base turning out in October?
Researchers from a public affairs portal collaborated with Laboratory Social to examine these questions. They asked a straightforward question of respondents:
Are you sure which party you will vote for in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Across the survey, a large share of respondents indicated strong certainty. Up to 89 percent answered either bsolutely yes (63 percent) or rather so (26 percent). A smaller portion provided a negative response, totaling 8 percent, with only 2 percent saying efinitely not and 6 percent indicating lmost certainly not.
The results reveal where confidence runs deepest. Voters aligned with the Law and Justice party show the highest level of conviction, with 98 percent intending to support their party in the autumn ballot. Supporters of the Civic Coalition also exhibit a strong commitment, at 96 percent. Among voters who back the Poland 2050 movement, confidence sits at 86 percent, and Confederation supporters report a similar level of readiness at 86 percent.
The study suggests that the election outcome will hinge on the choices of a relatively small portion of undecided voters, alongside the effectiveness of efforts to mobilize different segments of the electorate.
READ: OUR RESEARCH. What might the Confederacy do if it wins power in the fall? Will it align with PiS, join KO, or remain outside the government?
The survey used the CAWI method (Computer Assisted Web Interview) over a three-day period from the end of June to early July 2023, leveraging an online panel. The sample was nationwide and representative in terms of gender, age, and place of residence, with N equal to 1,093 participants.
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Source: wPolityce