Beijing’s diplomatic push: Ukraine plan, US response, and the changing balance of power

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow and talks with Vladimir Putin have put the Biden administration in an awkward position. Beijing and Moscow are discussing a peace path for Ukraine, a proposal Washington has rejected. Officials at the White House worry that China could use the plan to pressure the United States on the world stage.

“The United States fears being boxed in by a Chinese proposal. A direct peace initiative could show other war-weary nations that Washington is not pursuing an end to the fighting,” one U.S. official told Bloomberg.

Bonnie Lin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggests China might stress that Washington opposes a ceasefire as a way to portray the United States negatively to the world.

Chinese diplomacy

The Bloomberg piece emphasizes that China’s potential reputational impact on the United States is a sobering reality revealed after Xi’s Moscow visit. Washington worries about closer cooperation between Moscow and Beijing and about China’s growing reach on the global stage.

The Biden administration has tried to keep China out of Ukraine diplomacy, but the opposite seems to be unfolding. With Xi and Putin drawing closer, Beijing appears to be gaining audiences for broader diplomatic moves worldwide.

During a March hearing, Senator Jeff Merkley pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken to respond to what he called a “three-day celebration of fraternity” between Putin and Xi. Blinken acknowledged that the recent Moscow-Beijing talks extend the so-called unlimited partnership that existed before the latest developments.

Experts note that the two countries hold worldviews that diverge sharply from Western perspectives. Foreign ministers say they can find common ground in opposing the ideas many nations are trying to defend and develop.

China’s rising influence has led some countries to loosen dependence on the United States. India and Brazil, for instance, resist choosing sides between China and the West, signaling a reluctance to reignite a new cold war. Honduras has shifted toward stronger economic ties with China while re-evaluating relations with Taiwan. The shifting balance is tied not only to the Ukraine conflict but also to broader tensions that trace back to trade frictions during the Trump era and to a high-profile balloon incident in early 2023.

U.S. officials argue that tough talk toward Beijing has had some effect. Public warnings that China could supply deadly weapons to Russia have prompted Beijing to rethink certain strategic moves. Yet the Biden administration has found itself reacting to Beijing’s terms rather than shaping them, a dynamic some observers describe as unsettling for Washington.

According to Christopher Johnson, head of the China Strategies Group, Beijing appears to be acting on its own terms, a development that has drawn attention from policymakers in Washington. Some analysts Bloomberg spoke with say China may have paused or altered its approach in response to Washington’s hawkish posture.

Chinese plan

On February 24, Beijing released a twelve-point framework aimed at resolving the Ukraine crisis. Before the plan was published officially, its key elements were shared with Moscow and Kyiv for feedback.

The twelve points call for respect for sovereignty and adherence to international law and the UN Charter; rejection of a Cold War mindset and the principle that one nation’s security should not come at the expense of others; immediate cessation of hostilities, de-escalation, and renewed dialogue between Russia and Ukraine; a renewed push for peace talks as the only viable path forward, with China ready to play a constructive role;

Addressing humanitarian needs, establishing safe corridors, boosting aid, and coordinating with the UN; protecting civilians and prisoners of war and creating favorable conditions for exchanges; ensuring security of nuclear facilities; countering the threat of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons; facilitating grain exports within the Black Sea initiative; ending unilateral sanctions that fail to solve problems but create new ones; supporting stable production and supply chains, avoiding political use of the world economy; and offering post-conflict reconstruction support as part of a broader peace effort.

Moscow and Kyiv about the Beijing plan

After talks with Xi on February 21, Putin suggested that many items in China’s plan could form the basis for a settlement. Moscow indicated that several provisions could align with its approach and might be used as a starting point for a peaceful resolution once Western partners and Kyiv are ready.

But such readiness has not yet appeared on the other side. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on February 24 that China’s proposals are not a formal action plan but an outline of Beijing’s thinking on the issue. He noted that some points clash with Ukraine’s position, while others could be workable. Overall, Zelensky welcomed China’s engagement in the peace process.