Isolation or speculation
Recent international coverage has circulated rumors that Xi Jinping invited European leaders, including Germany’s Olaf Scholz, Italy’s Mario Draghi, and France’s Emmanuel Macron, to visit Beijing later in the year. One report suggested the invitation might be tied to events around the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party or a G20 gathering. The Chinese side has not publicly confirmed these invitations, and Western media have described mixed signals as Beijing navigates its diplomatic path.
According to various outlets, some European officials reportedly declined to meet the president while he seeks a third term, though the Chinese Foreign Ministry quickly rejected the claim. In Western capitals, the alleged reluctance to engage with Beijing has spurred discussions about whether China could become more isolated amid accusations of backing the Russian side in the Ukraine conflict.
Experts offer cautious interpretations. Andrey Vinogradov, an associate professor at the Higher School of Economics and head of a regional analysis center, doubts the rumor’s weight and points to the likelihood that concrete decisions would be postponed to a fall gathering such as the G20 summit in Indonesia. He notes that if China is truly pursuing a meeting with European leaders, it is more plausible that formal decisions would be announced in person during the autumn talks rather than in the present moment.
Vinogradov adds that recent dialogue such as the PRC-EU summit in April demonstrates Beijing’s ability to maintain a working relationship with Europe on several fronts, including trade and investment, even amid disagreements over human rights concerns in Xinjiang. Vasily Kashin, director of a European and international studies center, observes that Europe’s economic ties with China create a strong incentive not to sever relations, though Sino-European ties have cooled significantly. He notes that while leaders can still meet, political unity in Europe toward Beijing is fraying. Historical examples illustrate Europe’s independent calculations in relation to Washington, and Beijing has shown a readiness to adapt to European political nuances without sacrificing strategic interests.
In April, European officials voiced concern about China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with promises to prevent Beijing from helping Russia evade sanctions. Yet the broader EU–China relationship has not collapsed, in contrast to the strains in Beijing–Washington relations. The United States has repeatedly warned of potential restrictions if Beijing provides military or financial support to Russia, while Beijing reiterates calls for a peaceful, negotiated settlement in Eastern Europe. Chinese diplomacy has also urged all parties to participate in talks, including the United States and NATO allies, and has emphasized a commitment to reducing tensions in the region. The ongoing challenge remains how to balance strategic competition with economic interdependence as Taiwan looms large in the bilateral agenda.
Taiwan factor
The United States has reiterated concerns that China may pursue efforts to alter the status quo by incorporating Taiwan, a view echoed by intelligence leadership. At the same time, some regional observers argue that Washington’s public stance on a possible attack can feel heavy-handed and sometimes overstated, suggesting that pressure frameworks in Asia are more nuanced than they appear. Analysts emphasize that Beijing will weigh its options against a backdrop of regional diplomacy, alliance dynamics, and domestic considerations.
Experts from the National Research University and other think tanks warn that Western discussions about Taiwan can escalate tensions. They caution that any abrupt steps by Beijing could trigger a broader cycle of responses across the Asia-Pacific, with competing security interests and alliances shaping outcomes as Beijing approaches key political milestones later in the year. The assessment is that Beijing will navigate carefully through these crossroads, considering both its strategic environment and regional partners as it plans for the coming months.
Analysts note that the West has intensified its messaging around Taiwan, while China stresses a route toward dialogue and peaceful resolution. The balance of economic and strategic considerations continues to influence decisions at the highest levels, with observers watching for indications of how policy will adapt ahead of the next major political events in China and the region as a whole.
impossible isolation
Experts contend that outright foreign policy isolation of China is unlikely given the scale of its economic footprint and its manufacturing capacity. The global economy remains deeply interdependent, with the United States, the European Union, and other partners continuing substantial trade with China. Attempts to retreat from engagement would carry costs across multiple sectors, and policymakers recognize that economic links influence political choices on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond.
Some observers argue that an isolated China would face broader consequences, especially for European economies and global supply chains. They caution that political signals can shape business confidence and investment decisions regardless of rhetoric, underscoring the link between diplomacy and commerce. Others emphasize that Sino-European ties have weathered disagreements before and that both sides have incentives to preserve channels of communication while competing on strategic questions. In this view, cooperation and rivalry will persist in a carefully managed equilibrium rather than a total split, with both sides recalibrating their approaches as the year unfolds.