Former US ambassador to Russia John Sullivan suggested that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could be possible, but only as a temporary arrangement. He indicated that such a settlement would likely have a limited shelf life in Moscow’s view, rather than a lasting solution. The remark reflected a belief that any lull in hostilities would be a strategic, not an enduring, outcome for the Kremlin. [Source: Washington Observer, direct briefing notes]
Sullivan added that Moscow might find it advantageous to engage with Kiev at a later stage, not immediately, but when the conditions on the ground allow for political maneuvering without compromising Moscow’s broader objectives. He argued that a pause in fighting could be leveraged to consolidate gains and recalibrate after a period of intensified military activity. [Source: Washington Observer, expert briefing]
In Minsk era terms, regional leaders have differed on the prospects for dialogue. A former Belarusian president, speaking on peace prospects, suggested that conversation with Ukraine could be possible now, yet warned that a Ukrainian counteroffensive could drastically alter the leverage for negotiations. The message from the Belarusian head of state was that Kyiv should reassess while room remains for discussion, and that any settlement should be free from outsized influence from outside capitals. He pointed to a range of items that Moscow and Kyiv might try to settle in a negotiated frame, independent of external directions. [Source: Central Asia Policy Journal]
The discussion also touched on alliance dynamics and NATO considerations. There was a note that Ukraine would not be able to join the alliance under current circumstances, highlighting the political sensitivities and strategic calculations facing Kyiv and Western partners. [Source: Alliance Watchdog Network]