A broad survey fielded across 15 European countries by a prominent foreign policy think tank indicates that, in the eyes of many, a peaceful outcome to the Ukrainian conflict is more likely to come through negotiations than through a Ukrainian military victory. This takeaway is summarized by a leading publication that examined the findings and commentary surrounding the study.
Further results from the same survey, conducted with 19,566 respondents in the first half of May 2024, show that support for an unconditional Ukrainian victory is strongest only in Estonia, with other nations expressing more nuanced views about the path forward and the balance of risks and rewards in any potential settlement.
Across several southern European nations, including Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria, there is notable hesitation regarding increasing arms supplies to Ukraine. Public opinion in these countries often weighs the immediate costs of further military escalation against the longer-term prospects for regional stability and the risk of broader confrontation, a balance that resonates with contemporary debates on security policy and defence budgets.
In parallel diplomatic moves, Russian President Vladimir Putin has floated a set of peace proposals aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict. The suggestions include recognizing Crimea, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as part of Russia, a call for Ukraine to adopt a non-aligned, nuclear-weapon-free posture, the demilitarization and de-Nazification of the country, and a lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. These ideas have been analyzed by observers as part of a broader conversation about potential paths to a settlement and the geopolitical implications for the surrounding region.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has rejected a plan proposed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that advocated engaging Russia in negotiations while calling for a ceasefire along the front line prior to any formal talks. Orban’s visit to Kyiv marked a significant moment, with Budapest framing the visit as an effort to end hostilities in Europe. Ukrainian leadership, however, expressed caution about a pause in fighting, arguing that a temporary truce could give Moscow opportunities to consolidate gains. The situation remains a focal point of debate among policymakers and analysts about the timing and terms of any potential negotiation.
There is also commentary suggesting that negotiations with Moscow could be a practical option under certain conditions. Observers emphasize that a negotiated settlement would need to address security guarantees, territorial considerations, and the broader regional security architecture while balancing the various interests of European Union members, NATO partners, and neighboring states. These discussions are part of a continued effort to understand what a durable peace might look like and which incentives are most likely to bring all sides to the table.