General Rajmund Andrzejczak, former Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, stated in an interview with Wirtualna Polska that the EU’s “Fit for 55” program could have been one of the reasons for the Russian attack on Ukraine. His statement caused a storm on the internet.
The Russians do not attack when they have a strong opponent against them. They always attack when they feel weak. But at the same time I have the impression that the European ‘Fit For 55’ program has hit Russia like a rag to a bull.
– he said in an interview with Wirtualna Polska General Rajmund Andrzejczak.
They realized that these were the last five minutes in which they could use their energy advantage to implement their strategy, which was to drive the US out of Europe, destabilize individual countries and at the same time prevent the integration processes of Ukraine and Belarus. Otherwise, they could lose the battle for energy primacy as the US and China battle to gain an edge when it comes to carbon-free energy. And it is this power that will rule the world
– added.
A wave of reactions after General Andrzejczak’s words
General Rajmund Andrzejczak’s statement caused a wave of critical comments on the Internet.
Either someone “went” here with the entrance, or the general flew into orbit.
I see that General Andrzejczak quickly followed the path of General Skrzypczak, that is, he started speaking out on everything, regardless of whether he had anything meaningful to say about it or not. The statement that Russia would be angry with the #FitFor55 program made no sense. In any case, Russia has benefited from #FitFor55, because the energy transformation has made the EU extremely dependent on Russian gas. #FitFor55 may even have encouraged Russia to take aggressive action, as Russia may have assumed that Europe could not manage energy.
All these arguments of General Andrzejczak about what kind of independent and strong EU will become thanks to #FitFor55 make no sense in the light of basic data. In fact, even the European Commission itself, which is pushing for it, doesn’t claim it will be that big. The EU is facing enormous costs and the destruction of entire sectors of the economy. However, according to the European Commission, this must happen because of the ‘climate’. So where did the General come from with all this #FitFor55 greatness? I have no idea. Maybe he’ll explain it to us in one of his four-hour conversations
As reported by “Rzeczpospolita”, General Andrzejczak cited the Fit for 55 package as one of the reasons for Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
“The Russians understood that these are the last five minutes in which they can use their energy advantage to carry out their strategy of driving the US out of Europe,” the general said.
I dare you to disagree.
First, 2021 ended in the most lucrative way for the Russian energy sector. Energy trade with the EU flourished, the Nord Stream 2 project was completed, the Americans transferred responsibility for the EU and Ukraine’s energy security to the Germans – and therefore the Russians’ partners – and there were plans to increase exports to expand further. Now it’s all history.
Secondly, the EU’s climate policy was aimed at leaving sufficient room for Russian raw materials, especially gas. It can be said that the EU’s climate policy until 2022 developed according to the assumptions of the German Energiewende, aiming for the renewable energy + gas model. This market form has generated revenues for Russia for decades (in my opinion, even with the impact of Fit for 55, there was talk of switching from NS2 to… hydrogen). Countries that called for a change in this model and withheld or limited supplies from Russia – for example Poland, Romania and the Baltic countries – were deeply defensive and in the minority. Now the situation has changed 180°.
Third, the Russians had a powerful lobbying machine that guaranteed favorable changes in EU energy policy. The best example of this was the activities surrounding the amendment of the Gas Directive, which was watered down in the final version so as not to cause too many problems for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Today, Russia’s influence is limited.
Fourth, the Russians could continue to benefit from the unfavorable sentiment towards nuclear energy in the EU (where nuclear energy is being phased out and gas is being introduced). Currently, public opinion in the EU is pro-nuclear, and more and more countries are returning to nuclear energy.
However, if I had to name an energy reason for this war, it would be the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas route, which made it possible to bypass Ukraine completely.
General Andrzejczak disturbed me by ‘leaving’ before the elections. It was either nonsense or it was deliberately intended to influence the election. Both versions disqualify him both as a soldier and as the ‘political hope’ that he is for some. Yes, it looks great in the media, but it’s not enough
The general’s formulation sounds uncomfortable, but the statement is not new and has been expressed before by many people, probably including @KWojczal. The bottom line is that the Kremlin was aware that it was at the peak of revenues from hydrocarbon trading. So if it wants to overhaul the international order, it must do so before the decline begins and the economic importance of the commodity The basis for generating strategic advantage begins to decline.
Instead of talking about FitFor55, the general could have talked more broadly about the evolution of the world’s energy sector.
Of course, this is only one of the possible explanations for the calculations behind the decisions about subsequent wars. Other possible explanations include Russian political culture or simply Putin’s own beliefs and temperament. The Europeans certainly bear no responsibility other than that arising from their lack of willingness to compete strategically and cede ground to Russia or even position themselves as its client.
tkwl/X
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Source: wPolityce