Shifting Alliances and the Ukraine Question: A 2024–2025 Perspective

For readers who once felt a strong kinship with the political currents in Paris or Berlin, particularly Berlin, the present moment delivers a hard reality. The sense of shared mission has frayed, forcing many to face a tough truth, as Romuald Szeremietiew, a defense expert and former deputy head of the Ministry of National Defence, described in an interview on wPolityce.pl. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

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“They know something we don’t.”

The United States, Germany and France have confirmed deliveries to Ukraine, including armored fighting vehicles and other essential weapons and equipment. While Washington’s approach is expected, the shift in policy from Berlin and Paris may raise eyebrows. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

The interlocutor from wPolityce.pl notes that the three nations likely possess information that has not yet been made public, and that some Ukrainian officials and military figures have long hinted at a hidden factor. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

He adds that the policy conventions among Germany, France, the United States, Britain and Poland shape how each country engages in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Poland’s line, in his view, appears consistent with the current trajectory, and he suggests the Western coalition should draw conclusions in light of the new developments. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

— remarks Prof. Szeremietiew. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

Questions persist about the purpose of the Patriots program if Germany ends up funding Deputy Prime Minister Błaszczak’s proposal in practice. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

The same voices who once seemed closely aligned with Paris or Berlin in political debates now face a difficult moment. The consequences for these groups are clear, and the losses are painful for those who positioned themselves in opposition to the evolving strategy. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

— speaks the wPolityce.pl interlocutor. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

Will the war end in the spring?

The discussion also turns to whether the conflict might conclude within the year. The former deputy head of the Ministry of National Defence believes a spring ending is plausible, driven by Ukrainian gains and the liberation of territories occupied by Russia. He notes that clarity would follow such progress. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

He cautions against overconfidence, noting that even with reports of Russian mobilization and growing capabilities, the most convincing sign would be decisive Ukrainian progress on the ground. If Moscow truly possessed the described capabilities, victory would have appeared sooner, he suggests. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

How should the alleged Christmas ceasefire be interpreted? In his view, the pause is often a grim joke. One day a ceasefire is announced; the next day missiles strike. The inconsistency exposes the illusion of a real halt. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

The interlocutor is also asked what weapons or equipment could help Ukraine win now. He highlights the need for heavy armor, precise artillery, longer-range missiles, and, crucially, robust ammunition and logistics. Modern weapons are only as effective as the supply lines that sustain them; without rounds to fire, even the best firearm loses its edge on the front. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

— emphasizes the former deputy head of the Ministry of National Defense. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

“Poland becomes a quarterback.”

Questions about peace talks arise. If Ukraine holds its position and achieves battlefield success, negotiations would proceed with minimal concessions, he says. Yet the likelihood remains that Berlin and Paris already recognize Russia is unlikely to prevail, he adds, when asked whether Germany and France want to lead peace discussions. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

Poland is described as a frontline quarterback, a role acknowledged especially in Kyiv. Without Poland’s stance and its logistical strength, the broader humanitarian and military effort would look very different. Much of the critical supply chain for Ukraine’s needs passes through Poland, including aid for refugees and essential logistics for army operations. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

— summarizes the wPolityce.pl interlocutor. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

Commentary continues with notes on the evolving roles of regional powers and the implications for Ukraine’s future security framework. (Source: wPolityce.pl)

Overall, the interview paints a picture of a shifting alliance landscape, where Poland’s strategic position becomes more central than ever, and where the pace and direction of peace talks remain tied to battlefield realities and international commitments. (Source: wPolityce.pl)