55 percent respondents believe that PiS is likely to win the Sejm elections on October 15, in the case of the Senate, respondents expect a balance between PiS and its coalition partners and a likely coalition of opposition parties – according to a CBOS survey.
What election result do Poles expect?
In a survey by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), respondents were asked what election outcome they expected.
When asked who according to respondents will win the Sejm elections on October 15, 55 percent Respondents answered that it was more about Law and Justice and its coalition partners. 22 percent answered: rather the parties of the current opposition. The same number (22%) declined to answer or said it was difficult to say.
To the question, who will win the Senate elections The respondents’ opinions were evenly divided. 35 percent of respondents indicated that in their opinion Law and Justice and its coalition partners would prefer to win the Senate elections. 33 percent answered that it was more likely to be the parties of the current opposition, namely 32 percent they noted that it was difficult to say this question or refused to answer it.
Law and Justice clearly dominate the predictions for the Sejm, while in the case of the Senate, respondents are more likely to expect a balance of power between PiS and its coalition partners and a likely coalition of opposition parties.
— it was stated in the statement accompanying the investigation.
The impact of voting preferences
Respondents’ political preferences influence who they identify as the predicted winner of the Sejm elections. 92 percent Law and Justice supporters indicated that Law and Justice would prefer to win the election. Only 1 percent of PiS supporters said the opposition would win, while 7 percent responded that it was difficult to say or refused to answer.
Among Civic Coalition supporters, only 22 percent of respondents indicated that Law and Justice would prefer to win the Sejm elections, and 66 percent responded that the opposition would likely win. 12 percent Respondents answered that this was difficult to say or refused to answer.
When predicting the results of the Senate elections, a significantly larger group of Law and Justice voters are unsure of the victory of the party they support. 64 percent respondents indicated that Law and Justice would prefer to win the Senate elections, 12 percent respondents indicated that the opposition would prefer to win, and a whopping 24 percent responded that it was difficult to say or refused to answer.
Among Civic Coalition voters, only 14 percent of respondents answered that Law and Justice would prefer to win the Senate elections, while as many as 72 percent responded that the opposition would prefer to win. Only 14 percent responded that it was difficult to say or refused to answer.
The influence of education and place of residence
The announcement noted that “neither age nor gender makes a significant difference in the predictions of who will win the election. In the case of one category, there are strong differences depending on place of residence: rural residents predict a victory for PiS much more often (55%) than others, and a victory for the opposition considerably less often (16%).
It also added that “the higher the education of respondents, the more likely the opposition will be chosen as the winner, and the lower it is, the more likely Law and Justice will be chosen.”
The survey was conducted as part of the mixed procedure on a representative sample of adult Polish residents, drawn from the PESEL register, and was conducted from September 4 to 14, 2023 on a sample of 1,073 people (including: 62.7% used the CAPI method, 23.4 percent – CATI and 13.9 percent – CAWI).
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wkt/PAP
Source: wPolityce