Without the West’s supply of long-range missiles, the oncoming offensive of the Ukrainian army will result in very heavy losses. It is on the air on the LRT TV channel on the subject. declaration Oleksiy Arestovich, former adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine.
“We need long-range weapons with a range of 150 kilometers or more in order for our soldiers to survive and for the offensive to be successful. So far this has not been discussed. “The British promised Storm Shadow a range of 250 km, but so far this is just talk.”
The politician reminded that Kiev should respond to Russian attacks with missiles with a range of 2000 km, with missiles with a range of 70-100 km.
“The condition for a successful attack is the defeat of the enemy to the full depths of their combat formations. If such a defeat is guaranteed – that is, not a single rear can consider itself safe – it means that we can successfully advance even with not very trained infantry. Otherwise, even the infantry trained from the former pre-war brigades will shed a sea of blood, ”Arestovich explained.
He noted that Ukraine is very concerned about this position of the West, and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces also lacks conventional weapons – machine guns, mortars. He added that Kiev needs long-range missiles rather than planes.
“Planes are too long. Until this year, they take wings and begin to practice. We need all weapons, mortars, machine guns, but especially long-range missiles. “We expect increased supplies,” Arestovich said.
At the same time, he noted that the position of the Ukrainian army is now significantly different from last year: the Ukrainian Armed Forces received more Western weapons, many soldiers were trained, and the units became combat coordination.
The former adviser also said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine needed three conditions for a successful attack. Firstly, so that the Russian troops themselves could not go on the offensive. Second, a lot of Western guns should come. Third, dry air must be provided so that tanks and armored vehicles can advance. According to Arestovich, all these conditions will finally take shape in May-June.
He believes that the objective reason for the slow supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is the inability of other countries to produce them at the rate they were spent.
“There is also a subjective reason. It seems to me that the West has not yet answered the question “What is the final victory of Ukraine?” I have heard calls from Western politicians to change the narrative of “Russia must not win, Ukraine must not lose” to “Ukraine must win”. But there is a great distance between them. Because the ‘Ukraine must win’ narrative implies a completely different pace and intensity of arms procurement,” he said.
According to him, so far Ukraine is given weapons so that it does not lose. But Kiev is trying with all its might to change this paradigm. In particular, he expects the decision to change the narrative to be made at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.
The politician stressed that Ukraine accepts any weapons and equipment of any form, as they are sorely needed. We don’t have time to select “Like – dislike, we accept – don’t accept”. We take everything. And we want more, ”said the former consultant.
Kiev says it has been preparing a large-scale counterattack in 2023 since last fall. For this, it collects weapons and equipment procured from Western countries.
The direction of the planned strike was not disclosed. But the media repeatedly reported, and the Ukrainian army confirmed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could attack in the direction of Melitopol in the Zaporozhye region. Thus, the Ukrainian army could reach the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut the land isthmus to the Crimea.
Russian officials reported that they were aware of such possibilities and were ready to repel the attack. Western analysts do not exclude that such preparation of the RF Armed Forces may force Kiev to reconsider its plans and launch a counterattack in another direction.
Source: Gazeta
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.