Vitaly Ryumshin Will peace talks between Russia and Ukraine begin in 2024? 08/05/2024, 08:16

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is entering a new phase, at least at the rhetorical level. What seemed unthinkable just a few months ago is now a reality: the Ukrainian leadership is allowing peace talks with Russia and even hinting that it is ready to cede some of its territory if the conflict ends before the end of the year.

Moscow seems to be in no hurry to rush to Kiev. On the other hand, if the Kremlin previously drew attention to the illegitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky, now Dmitry Peskov attributes this issue to “legal nuances” that will not interfere with serious negotiations. This suggests that Russian officials are not indifferently watching Bankova’s verbal rants at least. The recent historic prisoner exchange between Russia and the United States only increased hopes for a quick “deal.”

But I would not rush to get a bottle of champagne out of the cupboard. Moscow and Kiev are talking about the world only with Aesopian hints and half-hints. Since neither side has made any practical and meaningful proposals, it is too early to talk about the real possibility of negotiations.

So why are they still talking about peace? Let’s figure it out.

I’ll start with Ukraine.

Kiev is currently going through a difficult period: the front line in Donbass is gradually shifting to the West, society is tired of mobilization, Western allies are tired of economic problems, and the majority of the world is not going to side with Ukraine, despite two years of diplomatic work.

In addition, Joe Biden, who has invested a lot of resources in the Ukraine project since 2014 and is therefore more interested in its success than others, is leaving the US presidential race. Since his successors have less interest, relations with them will have to be built differently. For example, Donald Trump wants to take the US out of the game. Kamala Harris, who has little experience in foreign policy, says very general things. No one knows how she and her foreign policy team will behave if they come to the White House.

Zelensky, in a state of extreme uncertainty, intuitively takes precautions against risks. This is the reason for speculation about peace. This does not mean that Ukraine will stop fighting soon; it may continue to fight for a certain period even after the US washes its hands. For Kiev, it is more important that the world card can be played at any time, and for this, public opinion must be prepared for negotiations in advance.

Changing the rhetoric could solve other problems. For example, the West has long criticized Zelensky’s maximalist approach to the 1991 borders; in response to its demands, the Ukrainian president is softening his position. Also, Zelensky and his officials once promised Ukrainians coffee in Yalta but ended up broke. Now they are deliberately lowering their expectations for the future, as if to show that the lesson has been learned.

But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, the tango must be done together.

If Ukraine proposes a ceasefire “tomorrow,” will Russia accept it? I think not. And not because “Putin needs all of Ukraine.”

Despite Kiev’s new approach, the parties’ negotiating positions have not come close enough to make compromise possible.

Let me explain. The updated “Zelensky formula” assumes that Ukraine will cede some of its territory to Russia through a referendum, and in return will be allowed to join the EU and NATO. This is completely consistent with how the end of the conflict is seen in the West, but it is based on completely false premises. It is assumed that Russia started everything for the sake of territorial conquests, while in reality the Kremlin’s NVO is primarily concerned with keeping NATO’s claws out of Ukraine.

Let us recall here that in June Putin demanded that the Armed Forces of Ukraine be withdrawn beyond the administrative borders of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions before the start of negotiations. This is true. But it is also true that in the spring of 2022 Russia is ready to withdraw its troops from the line on February 23, 2022, in exchange for Kiev’s neutrality. All else being equal, the Kremlin may re-open the territorial issue.

But negotiations over NATO are unlikely.

Moscow has previously reacted very harshly to the rapprochement between Ukraine and the alliance. And after two years of NWO, the probability that Kiev will allow free geopolitical swimming is close to zero. Well, if the situation on the front does not become so deplorable for the Russian Armed Forces, then this demand will have to be abandoned. But nothing like this is even close to being observed.

But Ukraine is not yet desperate enough to abandon its North Atlantic ambitions. Kiev hopes to emerge from the military crisis; otherwise, Zelensky would not talk about a second counter-offensive while talking about peace. We also know from the words of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that the Ukrainian president has high hopes for the destabilization of internal stability in Russia. It is not clear what this belief is based on, but Zelensky’s desire to hold out for a while is obvious.

Here’s what we have so far. Negotiations will begin when one side wins a convincing victory “on the ground” or collapses under the weight of its own problems. Could something similar happen as early as 2024? Maybe. Can I count on it? NO.

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.