“Winter will pass”
Analysts note that Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is projected to extend for at least a year. Observers also point to a period of stalemate and thinning intensity, with signs that momentum has slowed since the initial advances.
Six months into the conflict, both sides show little appetite for a ceasefire despite heavy losses. Ukraine seeks the return of occupied territories, while Moscow apparently believes winter could shape strategic outcomes. Negotiations between the belligerents are sparse, and the Russian push, along with allied efforts, has shown tentative gains since late June. Both sides appear to chase momentum while growing weary of sustained fighting.
“Partisan raids”
Under current circumstances, Ukraine is less able to conduct a traditional, large-scale counteroffensive. Kyiv has increasingly relied on guerrilla-style actions, described by some as a hopeful tactic to hasten Moscow’s vulnerabilities and potential retreat. Ukraine aims to reclaim Kherson west of the Dnieper, but privately some officials concede they lack the capacity to withstand renewed thrusts.
Strategic discussions highlight that the purpose of these actions is to disrupt Russian formations and sow disorder inside Russian lines. While such measures may erode operational effectiveness, they are unlikely to reverse overall control or force mass surrenders in the near term.
Protection of controlled areas
Analysts suggest Russia will focus on preserving existing gains while continuing limited forward movement where feasible. The broader plan appears to prioritize artillery buildup and more measured advances to manage casualties. Western estimates of Russian losses remain high, and redeployments around Kherson have constrained broader offensives.
There is a sense among observers that Moscow may not have achieved its initial aims yet, but control over substantial portions of eastern and southern Ukraine is advancing dialogue about referenda and boundary realignments. This dynamic underscores the ongoing contest over land, governance, and legitimacy.
Refugee Crisis
Winter is expected to intensify displacement and set the stage for new humanitarian challenges. Front-line regions are already at risk due to heating shortages, and a humanitarian group warned of a potential influx of migrants crossing into neighboring states, with millions possibly seeking shelter in nearby countries. The Russian side sees winter as an opportunity to test energy resilience and to press broader political objectives amid rising energy costs in the West.
Spring could bring renewed offensives as both sides regroup, resupply, and prepare for another high-intensity season. The strategic environment remains fluid, with weather, logistics, and external support shaping outcomes on the ground.
Addiction to materials from the West
Experts emphasize that Western allies face choices about the level and type of aid they provide to Ukraine. Ukraine has depended on international support to sustain its defense, yet there are debates about whether enough artillery, air capabilities, and other key weapons will be supplied to reach objectives on the battlefield. Political rhetoric often calls for restoring pre-war borders, but concrete assistance has at times lagged behind expectations.
The humanitarian needs in Ukraine continue to grow. Many towns northeast and northwest of the capital remain in ruins months after major withdrawals, leaving residents displaced and living in temporary shelters. The country faces a substantial reconstruction bill, with a wide budget deficit and a daunting path to recovery.
“No third”
Russian officials have publicly argued that there are limited scenarios for the conflict’s trajectory. The emphasis is on meeting strategic goals and managing political expectations within Russia, while some observers warn that the options are constrained and the timeline remains uncertain. At recent international gatherings, leadership stressed a measured approach aimed at minimizing civilian harm. Strikes focus on military infrastructure and related facilities, with civilian protection remaining a stated priority, even as operations slow to reduce noncombatant casualties.