Venice Flood Projections to 2150: What the Research Reveals
New simulations conducted as part of an international effort led by the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute indicate that Venice could face significant flooding as late as 2150. The scenario is among several explored by the project, which highlights how the lagoon city remains vulnerable to rising waters. A television report summarized these findings for audiences watching in Italy and beyond.
Researchers note that the MOSE barriers, installed to protect the lagoon against floods, may not be sufficient by themselves to fully shield the city. Flood models extend to 2050, 2100, and the 2150s, emphasizing that even with barriers, high-water events could exceed protection limits over time.
According to the television report, the most severe outcome could emerge in the middle of the 22nd century. In that scenario, flood extents could reach roughly 226 square kilometers, with areas about 139 square kilometers facing the greatest exposure. Without additional protective measures, both the local population and Venice’s cultural heritage would suffer substantial damage, experts warn.
Several factors are cited as drivers of a possible disaster, including climate change, ongoing subsidence of the ground, and a long-term rise in sea level that amplifies high-water events. At present, the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is contributing to higher water baselines, accelerating the risk of frequent inundation.
The high-water phenomenon in Venice, driven by tides and the lunar cycle, is characteristic of the island portion of the city, where elevated water levels can occur during favorable tidal conditions.
A scientific consultant from a major meteorology center noted that the growth of dangerous weather phenomena linked to global warming is observed globally. He explained that warming increases atmospheric moisture, which acts as fuel for extreme events, and that many of these phenomena would be unlikely without this moisture in the air.
Speculation and conspiracy theories have circulated in public discussions about Venice’s flood risk. While some interpretations diverge from the scientific assessment, the core message remains that sea-level rise, subsidence, and climatic shifts collectively raise the probability and severity of high-water episodes for the lagoon city in the coming decades.
Experts argue that the timeline presented by the simulations is intended as a warning rather than a fixed forecast. The scenarios demonstrate what could happen if protective measures are not strengthened, and they underscore the importance of integrating engineering defenses with urban planning, tourism management, and heritage conservation. Projections also remind policymakers that investment in monitoring, maintenance, and early warning systems could significantly reduce risk and save communities and monuments from catastrophic damage.
Moving forward, the discussion emphasizes resilience through a combination of concrete protections, revised building codes, and proactive emergency preparedness. By understanding the interaction between climate trends, subsidence, and tidal dynamics, planners can design interventions that protect residents, preserve cultural treasures, and sustain the economic life of Venice for generations to come.