Researchers from the Colorado School of Mines have highlighted a striking global pattern: roughly a quarter of the world’s population lives in regions where land subsidence is a real risk to homes, roads, and critical infrastructure. The findings appear in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, underscoring how widespread this geological hazard has become and why it deserves urgent attention from policymakers and planners alike.
Land subsidence refers to the gradual or abrupt sinking of the earth’s surface caused by the loss of underground materials. This process can unfold over years or even decades and is driven by a mix of natural forces and human activities. Natural contributors include earthquakes, volcanic processes, and the slow compaction of fine-grained sediments beneath the surface. Human actions add another layer of pressure, notably mining operations and, more prominently, the extraction of groundwater, which can accelerate subsidence in susceptible regions. The study emphasizes that the interaction between these natural and anthropogenic factors creates complex regional patterns of ground movement that can endanger existing structures and future development.
To quantify risk across vast areas, geologists combined existing records of subsidence data with remote sensing observations to assemble a comprehensive training dataset containing 46,000 subsidence scenarios. This rich dataset was paired with 23 climate, geographic, and topographic variables, including rainfall patterns, soil composition, sediment thickness, slope, and related environmental factors. By feeding these inputs into an advanced artificial intelligence system, researchers were able to estimate not only where subsidence is most likely to occur but also the scale of potential land area affected and the population living in those zones. The results paint a clear picture of risk: large swaths of land could experience subsidence at rates capable of causing damage to buildings and infrastructure if current conditions persist, and billions of people may be exposed to these hazards in at least some regions.
The AI analysis identifies groundwater extraction as a central driver of subsidence, with other significant contributors including seismic activity, the thickness of underlying sediments, the average summer temperatures, the clay content of soils, and how densely populated an area is. This concise ranking of factors helps planners prioritize interventions that could mitigate damage, such as advancing water management strategies, regulating extraction rates, and improving land-use planning in vulnerable zones. The model’s projections underscore the need for proactive policies to manage groundwater supplies while accommodating growth in densely populated areas that rely on those very aquifers for drinking water, agriculture, and industry.
Geographically, the study highlights that South Asia bears the largest share of land area at risk. An estimated 2.2 percent of its territory experiences subsidence rates exceeding 50 millimeters per year, translating into a substantial population exposed to potential harm—roughly 20 million people. Other nations showing subsidence at similarly alarming rates include the Philippines, Iran, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan. These patterns suggest that coastal and riverine regions, where sediments are often unconsolidated and groundwater is heavily used, warrant heightened monitoring and resilient infrastructure design to withstand ground movement over time.
As global populations continue to rise and groundwater demand intensifies, the interplay between water management, climate variability, and subsurface geology will remain a pressing issue. Drought conditions worsened by climate change can drive deeper pumping, accelerating subsidence in susceptible basins and amplifying the risk to housing, transportation networks, and utilities. The study’s implications reach beyond scientific curiosity; they call for coordinated action among governments, water agencies, engineers, and communities to adapt to a shifting subsurface landscape and to invest in monitoring, data sharing, and risk-informed development strategies. The ongoing dialogue about groundwater governance and land-use resilience will be essential for reducing vulnerability in the decades ahead, particularly in regions that already show the strongest signals of subsidence and the most pronounced exposure of people and assets to its effects.
Ultimately, the emerging evidence about subsidence patterns reinforces the importance of integrating geoscience insights into everyday planning. The picture is not simply about distant or isolated events; it is about translating scientific findings into practical safeguards that keep homes intact and communities functioning as populations grow and climate pressures intensify. The research makes a clear case: managing groundwater wisely and building with subsidence in mind can shield millions of people from tomorrow’s hazards while supporting sustainable development today.
Sources for these conclusions include a comprehensive data synthesis and modeling effort reported in Geophysical Research Letters, along with corroborating datasets from satellite-based observations and well-documented hydrogeologic records. Attribution: Geophysical Research Letters, Colorado School of Mines findings, corroborating datasets from satellite geodesy and groundwater studies.