The Mediterranean coast is facing a striking shift in sea levels, driven by climate change and accelerated by subsidence of the land itself. A recent report from the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology shows the sea level rising almost three times faster in parts of the region than previously projected. This trend threatens coastal activities and infrastructure by the end of the century, with gradual land sinking intensifying the impact along shorelines. Radboud University in the Netherlands contributed to the study, which notes that the IPCC estimates from 2021 may underestimate the pace of change along coastlines.
Ground collapse, or subsidence, plays a significant role in the observed acceleration of sea level rise along Mediterranean shores. This slow downward movement of land occurs due to natural and human factors, amplifying the effects of warming oceans since 1880, according to INGV researchers. The updates in measurements underscore the urgency of understanding how subsidence interacts with rising seas in shaping coastal risk.
Researchers led by Antonio Vecchio of Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen and the study’s first author explain that in certain parts of the Mediterranean the sea is rising nearly three times faster because the land is sinking. These insights prompted a recalculation of IPCC projections through 2150, incorporating data from 51 tide gauges across international networks and 265 zones of interest. The sampling covers Catalonia, the Valencian Community, the regions of Murcia, Almería and Andalusia, and the Balearic Islands, reflecting a wide coastal footprint.
Vecchio notes that the differences between the new findings and the IPCC expectations range from about 109 centimeters higher to 77 centimeters lower, with an average increase of roughly 8 centimeters over current forecasts. This adjustment highlights how regional processes can alter global projections and alter planning for the near and distant future.
The data indicate that roughly 38,500 square kilometers of the Mediterranean coastline, including nearly 19,000 square kilometers in the northern part of the basin, are at heightened risk of future submersion. This exposure translates into greater threats to ecosystems, human communities, and coastal infrastructure across multiple countries.
According to the study, large portions of the coasts in Italy, Greece, Spain, and France are experiencing subsidence, a factor that accelerates the rate of sea level rise and reshapes the coastline over time. The researchers emphasize that concrete measures must be taken to support coastal populations as vulnerability grows later this century and beyond.
For readers seeking deeper context, the study aligns with broader climate science and coastal dynamics research. The findings reinforce the need to integrate subsidence data with sea level forecasts to improve risk assessments and adaptation planning across the Mediterranean basin.
Research reference: a recent article on the topic is available through the publisher’s platform, which hosts a detailed examination of sea level changes in the region and the role of subsidence in shaping future coastal outcomes.
This overview highlights how evolving coastal science informs policy and resilience strategies for communities along the Mediterranean rim, underscoring that local conditions can markedly influence global climate projections.