The United States again finds itself at the center of global attention as voters head to the polls. About 240 million eligible Americans are invited to cast ballots to decide whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will lead the nation into the next term. Yet, history suggests the final outcome may arrive slowly.
The last two presidential elections illustrate why timelines can stretch. In 2016, Trump was declared the winner only after Election Day, and in 2020 the result was not clear until the following Saturday, four days later, when the 270 electoral votes needed were finally reached.
Two scenarios could unfold in the same way this year. Surveys point to a razor thin race between Democrats and Republicans, with particular closeness in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the seven swing states that could decide the outcome. Polls close in those states between 7 pm and 10 pm local time, which means results may come in at different hours depending on where viewers are watching from.
What will happen?
If the polls misread and one side clearly leads, the winner could be known by Tuesday or Wednesday. That has been the pattern in most elections this century, with exceptions in the years 2000 and 2020.
However, if forecasts point to a tight contest, the final decision could take several days as states follow different rules to count ballots. Some states count mail ballots first, others count in person votes first. The growing share of mail ballots also reduces the number of results available on election night to project a winner.
In 2020, Trump leveraged the uncertainty to challenge the outcome, a move that could recur if his side presses the issue again.
When will the final results be official?
During the night, the Associated Press will publish vote tallies while major networks such as CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS project outcomes. They rely on a mix of live official results, exit polls, historical voting patterns, and reporters stationed at county election boards to build projections.
Each outlet has a decision desk that issues its own projections, but all follow a simple rule: declare a winner in a state when the trend becomes irreversible. Still, the official tally takes days to finish because counting continues in every state.
Presidency in the United States is decided by the Electoral College, not the national popular vote. There are 538 electors in total, and a candidate must reach 270 to win. The electors meet in December to cast votes for president and vice president, and the final certification follows in early January during a joint session of Congress.