The Arrival of Biden
China breathed a sigh of relief when a president arrived without the abrasive rhetoric that unsettled markets. The two powers reopened channels of dialogue, and collaboration on certain issues briefly became possible again. Yet those openings were not promises of a peaceful era. Beijing soon found that Biden, unlike his predecessor, aimed to recalibrate global leadership rather than abandon diplomatic engagement. Washington’s renewed emphasis on alliances and standards complicated China’s bid for a central role in world affairs. Tariffs inherited from the previous administration remained, and new restrictions on technology grew in scope. Beijing strengthened defense partnerships in its nearby region and expanded ties with Taiwan. The visits of senior White House officials to Beijing and a high-profile meeting between Biden and Xi in San Francisco offered a momentary calm after a weather balloon incident that underscored the fragile balance of incidents between the two powers.
Trump had promised steep tariffs on Chinese imports. If kept, such measures would hurt both economies and disrupt supply chains worldwide. Yet the return to an America-first posture could lessen pressure on Beijing only in the short term, allowing China to gain room to maneuver in Asia, broaden its global influence, and steer issues historically managed by Washington. Beijing previously promoted itself as a champion of free trade and climate cooperation, arguing that global warming is a tactic used to slow American industry.
Trump also ended the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a signature Obama-era trade agreement, and hinted that the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, pushed by Biden, might wither if the former president returned to power. He floated higher tariffs on European imports and warned that NATO allies should meet the 2 percent of GDP defense spending target. Brussels and other capitals understandably trembled at the prospect of renewed conflict with Russia over Ukraine.
A Question of Principles
“Trump’s strength lies in breaking existing alliances, which runs counter to Biden’s approach. That shift affects Europe and East Asia alike, making Trump seem more favorable to China in some respects. But it also poses a danger due to a lack of predictable principles; Beijing values stable, predictable policies,” notes Stanley Rosen, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina’s US-China Institute.
Some analysts argue that in the long run Trump’s unpredictability could benefit China by eroding trust in American leadership. Nationalists in China refer to Trump in online discourse as a loyal ally who will re-strengthen the country, a figure they call a comrade in their own way. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, sought to reassure audiences at a recent security summit in Munich, presenting China as a steady, responsible power—“a force for stability” in a volatile world. The implication was clear: regardless of who sits in the White House, Beijing intends to project resilience and continue shaping global norms, especially on economic and technological fronts.
Whether Trump or Biden prevails, the United States seems unlikely to exit the era of intense Sino-American competition anytime soon. Some observers warn that the window for reconciliation may be narrow. Henry Kissinger warned months earlier that there are only a few years left to resolve deep differences and avoid a broader disaster. The overarching dynamic remains one of caution, competition, and calculated risks as both sides reassess alliances, influence, and the rules that govern global trade and security.