As of this Monday, Spain is edging toward a scenario experts already deem inevitable: a second heat wave gripping much of the country. Forecasters warn that temperatures could climb to record levels in places, with the south of the Iberian Peninsula experiencing frequent readings above 40ºC, and some areas possibly pushing the edge of 45ºC. The forecast from AEMET and other meteorologists points to a hot pattern extending across much of the peninsula.
AEMET predicts the peak of this second heat wave will come this Monday afternoon, starting in the morning and lasting through Tuesday. The heat will feel exceptionally intense across nearly the entire peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with the northwest and Cantabria likely to see comparatively milder conditions.
The agency anticipates Monday afternoon highs of 43ºC in Castilla-La Mancha locations, including Ciudad Real, while Córdoba could flirt with 44ºC. Further south, Toledo or Morón de la Frontera may reach around 42ºC, according to the same forecasts. Nighttime heat will also be extreme, remaining tropical with minimums staying above 20ºC and often not dipping below 25ºC.
‘It could be historic’
A weather specialist from Eltiempo.es, Marta Almarcha, explains that the extraordinary heat days stem from two main drivers: the Iberian furnace and African air inflows. The heat wave is tied to a ridge that sits over the western Mediterranean, a setup that blocks cooler air and funnels hot air toward the peninsula. Almarcha notes that the combination of this atmospheric pattern and intensified solar radiation pushes temperatures higher across the region.
The overall pattern also involves a persistent airflow over the area, which helps sustain the heat by keeping cooling winds at bay. The result is a sustained period of high temperatures that tests the resilience of people and infrastructure alike.
In addition to the heat, the arrival of North African air masses will push temperatures higher while bringing calmer conditions to parts of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Even as some cooler air tries to push in from the north, a subpolar mass is expected to be forced downward, contributing to the overall warmth.
How long will the heat persist? Computer simulations indicate that the ridge responsible for the conditions should drift southwest by Wednesday and move further south on Thursday. By Wednesday, some softening in temperatures might show in certain areas, though confidence remains limited. This shift is also expected to drive noticeable warming across the Canary Islands between Wednesday and Thursday.
A gradual, steadier decline is anticipated on Thursday, likely extending into Friday and Saturday. Yet the southern half of the peninsula is projected to remain under intense heat for longer, making heat management a priority for many communities.
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