Even though Euribor declined for the first time in 20 months in August, homeowners with variable-rate mortgages faced a noticeable annual rise of about 2,750 euros. The increase in monthly quotas may be softer than in previous months, yet experts differ on whether this signals a lasting trend or a temporary blip.
August’s early uptick in Euribor marks a potential turning point for the rate to which most Spanish mortgages are linked. As a result, quota increases appear likely to stay moderate but could climb further through the end of the year and into 2024.
On the flip side, some analysts argue that the August data may be misleading. They point to the mortgage sector’s 14 percent decline in the first half of the year as a sign that the broader trend could still be unsettled or unstable.
Seasonality in data
Simone Colombelli, mortgage manager at iAhorro, notes that August has historically been a low month because activity slows down. This background leads him to expect another uptick in Euribor in September.
He stresses that the current pattern does not indicate a clear downtrend. Instead, there is a modest seasonal fluctuation in the data. The persistent driver remains inflation, which central banks are continuing to address with rate adjustments.
ECB prepares for new rate hike
The European Central Bank has signaled that the economy is weaker than anticipated, even though a deep recession is not foreseen. All signs point to another round of rate increases, with a likely final move in interest rates before the end of September under the framework of monetary policy.