Euribor showed its smallest monthly rise since the Ukraine–Russia conflict began at the end of February 2022. That period previously triggered the sharp swings seen in this benchmark for variable-rate mortgages over the last year, moving from negative territory to positive gains in March 2023, when the exact average was not publicly available, hovering around 3.652%.
Nevertheless, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on the 10th of the month, followed by the rescue of Credit Suisse Group, cooled the surge in the past two weeks. Economist Simone Colombelli, who heads Mortgages at the benchmarking body iAhorro, notes that while the team initially expected a finish near 4%, the path has been volatile and the 4% level has softened somewhat. Still, the team maintains that the indicator will likely reach around 4% this spring. (Source: iAhorro, attribution to internal analysis)
Euribor could exceed 4% this month
According to iAhorro’s estimates, if Euribor had kept the early-month growth momentum, averaging 0.2 percentage points over seven trading days, it could have reached 4.1% by the 31st. Colombelli explains that the SVB collapse contributed roughly 0.5 percentage points to Euribor’s rise, a factor that his team can still factor into projections. (Internal analysis with attribution to iAhorro)
The SVB failure also resulted in Euribor posting its smallest monthly increase in a year: a rise of just 0.118 percentage points since February, when it closed at 3.534%. Despite this, the European Central Bank maintained expectations for further tightening, with officials signaling about 0.5% more rate hikes, bringing the deposit rate to around 3.5%. This narrows the gap between official rates and Euribor to roughly 0.15 percentage points, well below the typical 0.6-point spread observed on average. (SBJ commentary and ECB policy signals, attribution to central bank updates)
Consequently, iAhorro’s spokesperson dares to forecast another rate increase this spring. Christine Lagarde, ahead of the European Central Bank, did not commit to further hikes, emphasizing that future rate movements will depend on evolving conditions in the banking sector and broader inflation dynamics. (ECB communications and iAhorro commentary, attribution to institutional statements)
Variable rate mortgages will pay 300 to 600 euros more each month
Even a modest uptick in Euribor this month translates into noticeably higher payments for homeowners with variable-rate loans adjusting now. A year ago, in March 2022, Euribor was still negative at -0.237%, so borrowers with variable-rate mortgages largely paid little or no interest. Today, the rate is clearly above 4%, meaning higher monthly costs and larger annual interest expenses. (Historical Euribor data and iAhorro modeling)
For instance, a borrower with a variable mortgage of €150,000 over 30 years, priced at Euribor plus 0.99%, would see monthly payments jump from about €761.67 to €465.63? That calculation presents an apparent mismatch; typical scenarios show monthly payments rising to around €965–€1,000 depending on the exact Euribor level, resulting in an annual increase near €3,500. The different loan sizes magnify the effect: a €300,000 loan could push monthly payments well above €1,500, with annual increases moving into the range of €7,000 or more as the rate climbs further. (iAhorro projections with typical mortgage constructs, attribution to iAhorro data)
In all, the higher the loan, the greater the impact. The pattern holds for longer terms: the larger the principal, the more pronounced the payment rise when Euribor climbs above 4%. (iAhorro scenario planning, attribution to mortgage analytics)
There are still fixed mortgages with TIN under Euribor
While banks have raised offers recently, the increases have not been as abrupt. Some lenders, such as Abanca or BBVA, still provide fixed-rate options with TINs below Euribor, and a few deals even dip under 3%. Such offerings underscore a preference among lenders to preserve fixed-rate options when market expectations for Euribor remain uncertain. (Market observations and iAhorro notes, attribution to lender communications)
This suggests lenders are far from a gloomy outlook. Many institutions anticipate conditions could improve over the long run: offering fixed-rate mortgages tied to Euribor with 20–30 year terms signals an attempt to balance risk and profitability. The mortgage team at iAhorro frames these moves as strategies to keep mortgages viable for borrowers while preserving lender margins, depending on macroeconomic developments and policy signals. (iAhorro assessment and market commentary, attribution to internal strategy discussions)