Finish the moment, hold the line, and wait for better days. Armed with fresh weapons, the Ukrainian Army launched its first major counteroffensive since the war began last week. On the northern front, a town in areas under Russian control since the early days of the occupation, located in the corridor between Izium and Kharkiv, is trying to ease the pressure from a key settlement. It stands as the second most populated urban center in the country. Near a dozen Ukrainian villages were liberated from what remained in enemy hands, as Kyiv pursues a more ambitious military objective, convinced that Russia can offset its numerical edge with Western military support now arriving.
According to Alexander Lopez, the coordinator of the site Deciphering the War, which tracks detailed movements and frontline updates, Ukrainian forces in the south reportedly moved into about eight villages, while in the north the figure was around four to five villages. Yet the standout achievement lies in a road segment linking the western part of the front near Kharkiv to Izium, a crucial contact point that has been under Russian control since early April. Lopez notes in a tweet that these advances are significant and indicate momentum on the ground. [Attribution: Deciphering the War]
What has changed on the ground to enable Ukrainian forces to strike for the first time since the invasion began in February?
In a recent analysis, the expert explains that new capabilities gained from recently supplied Western weapons — such as long-range and precise missiles and anti-radiation systems — are making a difference. Michael Samus, a former military analyst with The New Geopolitics Research Network, observes that if a force can match or outpace its opponent in such capabilities, numerical superiority becomes less decisive. [Attribution: The New Geopolitics Research Network]
distant targets
According to the expert, HIMARS launchers, the high mobility artillery rocket systems mounted on trucks, can strike encircled targets at ranges of eighty, one hundred, or even three hundred kilometers with remarkable precision. The margin of error can be minimal, meaning almost any objective can be reached. This capability is enhanced by Ukraine’s satellite links funded through public efforts, which enable accurate targeting and coordination across the front. The combined effect allows Kyiv to disrupt Russian movements and supply lines more effectively.
The second critical component is the AGM 88 HARM air to surface missile, provided by the United States and now used by Ukrainian forces against Soviet-era aircraft. These missiles disable radar and air defense systems, expanding the Ukrainian air component at a time when Moscow has enjoyed strong air superiority. The growing role of the Ukrainian air force marks a notable shift in a theater previously dominated by Russian aerial power.
Beyond battlefield gains, the initial outcomes of the counteroffensives are visible in how occupied areas are being organized. A recent statement from Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Kherson Civil-Military Administration, suggested that an announced referendum on joining Russia had to be postponed. He indicated that while the plan to vote was set, current events demanded a pause. The town at the heart of these protests had become a center of resistance to occupation, witnessing demonstrations in the early stages of the war. [Attribution: Kherson Civil-Military Administration]