Russia’s influence over Ukraine’s efforts to buy fighters from foreign suppliers is unlikely to be legally blocking, and in some scenarios may be impossible to prove through formal channels. Igor Korotchenko, director of the Global Arms Trade Analysis Center, spoke to RIA Novosti about remarks from Vladislav Belbas, the general director of the Ukrainian Armored Vehicles company, who claimed that Russian diplomatic pressure hindered a potential weapon delivery from a third country.
What Vladislav Belbas said
“A fighter aircraft was located in a distant country, and negotiations on a purchase began. The seller was prepared, and the defense ministry confirmed the need. Then a letter related to the agreement surfaced in Russia. A representative from the Russian embassy in that country began circulating the letter, warning local officials that Russia would halt projects involving that particular nation.” explained Belbas to the Economic Truth publication. He added that the unnamed supplier later withdrew from the sale agreement.
Belbas noted that attempting to purchase would breach obligations because the buying country typically provides an end-user certificate, which prohibits re-export or requires Russia’s consent for any such plan.
Korotchenko suggested that Russia could have blocked the contract during consultations.
Russia may caution against escalating tensions
Military analyst Yuri Knutov, director of the Air Defense Forces Museum, offered a similar view in an interview with Lenta.ru.
“The type of aircraft being considered remains unknown. If the purchase involves Soviet-era MiG-29s or Su-27s, the seller would not be in violation, since these agreements typically require Russia’s nod,” he explained. He added that if foreign-made jets are on the table, the supplier country might prefer not to inflame tensions.
“Russia has likely conveyed to the seller the potential consequences for international relations, law, and treaty compliance,” the expert noted.
Misinformation concerns
Igor Korotchenko also suggested that Belbas might be referring to the delivery of aircraft components from Latin America. He cautioned that it is difficult to assess Kiev’s information reliability, as it could reflect deliberate misinformation.
“If the statement is accurate, Russia did not deploy pressure since the contract includes obligations that re-export requires the supplier country’s permission. If such a scenario occurred, it would fit within established legal frameworks,” Korotchenko stated.
He observed that Bulgaria, a former Warsaw Pact member and current NATO ally, has supplied Russian and Soviet weapons to Ukraine in breach of contractual duties. The diplomat noted that Bulgaria’s refusal to supply fighters demonstrates prudence and compliance with contractual terms.
Ukraine looks toward Western jets
Earlier this year, military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok remarked that Ukraine’s air force operates a fleet that includes older Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, and MiG-29 aircraft introduced before 1991. He noted that over the past thirty years Ukraine has not acquired a single new fighter jet.
Ukraine reportedly expects around 60 F-16 fighters from Western allies. The United States approved the transfer of F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands to Kyiv in August. Belgium decided in October that F-16 deliveries to Ukraine would proceed by 2025. The first wave of Ukrainian pilots was slated to begin training in France in January 2024.