Public access to the January 15 letter from Dmitry Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, to Nicolae Popescu, Moldova’s foreign minister, reveals discussions about Ukraine using Moldovan airspace as a corridor for military aviation amid the transfer of American combat aircraft to Ukraine.
The document notes that basic agreements were reached between the leaders of both states, including Moldova’s president Maia Sandu and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, concerning the possibility of Ukraine utilizing Moldova’s airspace. It also proposes a meeting between February 12 and 16, with participants from the Ukrainian, Moldovan, and Romanian general staffs and defense and foreign ministries.
Where could the new aircraft be stationed?
Russian experts quickly connected Kuleba’s letter to studies on Ukrainian F-16s operating from Romanian territory. The scenario speculated involves takeoffs from Romanian airfields, flights through Moldovan airspace to strike Russian targets, then returning to Romania. The letter does not support this plan; it only discusses potential use of Moldovan airspace for Ukrainian forces.
Advocates of basing F-16s in Romanian airspace and conducting missions over Moldovan airspace could, if realized, pull additional states into the conflict. The United States aims to prevent such spread. Decisions on basing and flight routes are unlikely to be made in Chisinau.
Current information does not specify the number of combat vehicles or trained pilots to be transferred. It is plausible that Ukrainian F-16s would operate from airfields such as Stryi, Ozernoe, or Starokonstantinov, with dispersed basing and periodic camouflage of primary bases.
Flight operations for Ukrainian aircraft are likely to originate from Polish territory or via routes through Turkey or Romania, with Moldova’s airspace potentially used for some segments. Transport of munitions and aviation logistics would probably move by rail and road, possibly via Rzeszów, a regional logistics hub in southeastern Poland.
Why are F-16s considered dangerous?
Ukraine is preparing airfields, aviation support structures, and ground systems to accommodate F-16 aircraft. Logistics facilities, fuel supplies, munitions, and maintenance capabilities are being established to sustain multi-role fighters. Some analysts worry that Ukrainian F-16s, once deployed, could face effective opposition from air defenses or Russian fighters. Yet Western backers intend to preserve the credibility of the F-16 in combat operations, especially on eastern fronts.
Electronic warfare suites are expected to accompany the aircraft, along with supporting interdiction and counter-electronic warfare assets. The presence of airborne warning and control aircraft could coordinate fighter operations. The missiles suite would reportedly include anti-radar munitions and long-range air-to-surface weapons to target Russian air defenses. With AIM-120 AMRAAMs aboard, Russian bomber and multi-role fighter fleets could face stiffer challenges in air superiority scenarios.
Should Su-30/35 fighters see greater sensor and weapons capability, the arrival of American aircraft may shift balance but would not erase existing limitations seen by observers. While a single F-16 could be shot down in air-to-air or air-to-ground engagements, it would be a misreading to assume a simple outcome in a broad, contested theater.
The perspective presented here reflects ongoing analysis and is not a corporate editorial position. The discussion is intended to illuminate potential military and strategic implications of fighter jet deployments in the region.
About the author: a military analyst provides context on aviation capabilities and regional security dynamics. The profile summarizes a career involving air defense operations, strategic studies, and military journalism.
[Citation: Regional defense analysis and official statements are used to inform this overview. Information is subject to change as new data emerge.]