The goal is ambitious, and authorities in Ukraine have signaled continued wheat and other agricultural exports this week. Kiev has set a date for what it calls the “deal.” The move comes as concerns mounted after a new Russian strike on the port of Odessa, threatening the fragile agreement that had been brokered with Turkish mediation to ease grain shipments. Moscow is positioned to remove barriers to grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, with the aim of alleviating a global food crisis that has left 345 million people at high risk or insecure about access to food.
Ukraine stated that its grain transport, alongside Russia, accounts for a sizable share of global supplies, with about 30 percent of wheat exports and 20 percent of corn exported. A large portion—roughly 70 percent of sunflowers—along with other grains, would begin moving from the port of Chornomorsk, located about 30 kilometers southwest of Odessa. From this hub and nearby ports such as Yuzhne and Pivdennyi, shipments would proceed if the war does not disrupt the Turkish-mediated accord. Ukrainian officials estimate that the three ports could collectively handle the equivalent of up to 3 million tons of exports each month.
Yet many analysts warn that only sustained peace would likely temper food price increases. The trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine continues to influence global markets. In Australia, former General Mick Ryan recently spoke on ABC Television, suggesting that some observers view the deal as a potential first step toward a broader peace, noting that dialogue between the parties is a positive sign.
Moscow has acknowledged responsibility for Saturday’s strike, while asserting that the attack targeted military facilities. Russian forces reportedly pressed attacks in other regions as well. At the same time, Moscow has denied that the episodes would derail the deal, according to statements by Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister. During a visit to Egypt, Lavrov discussed ongoing cooperation with Egyptian authorities and said that contact would continue, with shared understandings on the causes of the grain crisis reached during conversations with the Egyptian side.
Russia’s Outreach in Africa
Economists in Kyiv, including Volodímir Dubrovskiy of the CASE study center, view Russia’s broader strategy as promoting a Moscow-backed narrative of division between North and South. Lavrov’s tour extended to Uganda, Ethiopia, and the Congo, countries already grappling with food shortages. In a handful of African newspapers, Lavrov has denied that Russia bears responsibility for the current food crisis.
“Therefore, the deal has a chance to continue, and the focus is on Russia,” Dubrovskiy notes. He adds that Kyiv may not receive all the expected revenue from traded wheat, and insurance costs for ships carrying grain are unlikely to fall quickly, complicating Ukraine’s ability to earn substantial income from 2021-era scales of trade. While navigating the risky Black Sea environment remains a factor, insurance premiums are unlikely to drop enough to drastically alter the economics of Ukrainian grain shipments.
The situation in Egypt, Lavrov’s first destination, remains emblematic. Last year, a large share of Cairo’s wheat imports came from Russia and Ukraine, which has positioned Egyptian authorities as spokespersons for neighboring nations facing similar pressures. Tunisia and several Sub-Saharan African countries face high stakes: if cereal prices do not stabilize, popular resilience could be tested, mirroring tensions seen in other regions when staple foods become unaffordable.