On Friday, Vadim Skibitski, described as the second in command of Ukraine’s military intelligence, spoke about a troubling reality. The armed forces are running low on artillery stocks and now rely heavily on assistance from international partners to slow a Russian advance. This is shaping up to be a battlefield defined by sustained artillery exchanges, with Western support playing a decisive role in what happens next. Skibitski conveyed this to a major European outlet, highlighting the critical dependence on outside military aid to defend against the invasion.
He told The Guardian that the conflict has morphed into a prolonged artillery duel and that Ukraine is losing ground without timely, reinforced help. The message from the head of Ukraine’s intelligence community underscored the urgency: the country has already exhausted a large portion of its artillery ammunition, and continued Western support is the key variable determining future outcomes.
Figures cited by the Ukrainian side indicate a daily output of roughly five to six thousand cannon rounds, a rate that contrasts with earlier estimates of what Moscow could muster. Before the war, Russia reportedly held a significant superiority in rounds per day. The Ukrainian leadership stressed that international allies have provided a modest fraction of Moscow’s material capacity, signaling a wide gap that needs closing for Kyiv to sustain its defense efforts.
Kyiv’s strategy centers on accelerating the flow of long-range systems and other precision munition capabilities from Western backers. The aim is to neutralize Russian artillery positions and gain a stronger leverage as NATO coordinates its response. Officials have signaled a preference for delivering a concrete package ahead of the next NATO defense planning meeting scheduled for mid-June, hoping to solidify a shared path forward.
In official statements, Ukrainian authorities have quantified their needs, including a sizable fleet of long-range rocket launchers, while acknowledging the political and security risks of escalated strikes across the broader region. The leadership argues that the potential danger to Russian territory should not deter allies from delivering the necessary capabilities, stressing that the cost of delay could escalate the conflict further.
Meanwhile, the deputy head of military intelligence points out some vulnerabilities in the Russian artillery campaign as Western sanctions begin to bite. He notes that Moscow is struggling to replenish its stocks at the same pace as before and is relying on older, Soviet-era equipment. The claim is that older stockpiles, such as H-22-type rockets, are increasingly scarce, leaving Russian firepower stretched and less flexible on the battlefield.
Regarding the front lines, the consultant confirms that most Russian offensives are concentrated in the Donbas region, with concerns about other fronts, like Kharkiv, diminishing in intensity as Ukrainian countermeasures have started to bite. The northeastern front has cooled somewhat, while the south remains volatile. Observers note that Russian forces in Zaporizhzia and Kherson have entrenched themselves deeply, creating layered defenses that complicate any potential Ukrainian advance and raise the stakes for any external intervention.
Across the country, the picture remains mixed. In the south, the security situation is particularly fragile and tense, with Russian forces holding substantial positions and constructing successive lines of defense. The overall assessment from Kyiv remains cautious: the pace and scale of Western assistance will very much determine whether Ukrainian forces can sustain momentum in coming weeks and avoid a deeper deterioration of the frontline.