Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders hesitated to supply some of their most powerful weapons to their Slavic ally, fearing a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Yet reticence gradually faded as the conflict deepened, conditions shifted, and Moscow’s violations of the laws of war became more evident. Heavy artillery and mobile missile launchers arrived in the early summer, proving decisive in the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives. In recent weeks, more taboos have fallen away. The United States and Germany announced deployments of anti-missile batteries, followed by deliveries of combat armored vehicles to accompany the initial shipments of Western tanks.
The change in position reflects a growing belief that the war’s stalemate on the eastern Donbas front must be broken soon. The two sides fought for miles with little progress, but analysts predict momentum could accelerate as winter tightens its grip and spring begins to unfold. “Ukraine needs it,” said Laura Cooper, the United States Deputy Secretary of Defense, a few days earlier. “It’s time to leverage Ukraine’s capabilities and alter the battlefield dynamics.”
Achieving that shift will not be easy. Recent months of attrition have forced the Kremlin to reorganize and fortify positions behind occupied territories. A military analyst from the University of Warwick observed that Russia has consolidated its lines, making a spring recovery contingent on heavier weapons. A second factor is the supply timeline for rocket delivery from mobile launchers such as the American-made HIMARS.
HIMARS has been a crucial asset for Ukraine’s counteroffensive last autumn. With a striking range of about 80 kilometers, it enabled Kyiv to target Russian ammo depots, fuel depots, and command centers. Analysts note that easing bottlenecks in supply chains will be essential for Kyiv to deploy armor and tanks effectively in ground operations.
destroyed fleet
The central question concerns how many armored vehicles will be sent to replenish Ukraine’s damaged Soviet tank fleet, which mostly comprises T-72s. So far, only a handful of Leopard 2 tanks have been pledged, with contributions from the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia planned to replace earlier shipments. Yet the numbers could rise if Germany authorizes broader re-exports to Ukraine and if other NATO members with Leopard 2s in their arsenals approve transfers. Poland, Denmark, and Finland have signaled their intent to contribute armor in the near term.
Observers anticipated a decision during a scheduled assembly meeting at the Ramstein Air Base, where members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group were involved. The session did not yield a firm agreement. Berlin pressed for a multinational commitment to send tanks collectively and wanted Washington to match with a similar pledge, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
“It is not an easy choice because many European stocks of tanks attach to long lead times and maintenance cycles,” commented Sven Biscop, a geostrategist. The United States has promised 50 Bradleys, Germany 40 Marders, France an undetermined number of AMX-10 RCs, and Canada 200 armored vehicles for troop transport. Still, those figures fall well short of the 300 tanks and at least 600 armored combat vehicles that the Ukrainian army says it needs to shift the balance on the ground.
Both analysts and policymakers acknowledge the gap between announced pledges and battlefield demands. The broader consensus is that substantial shipments will help but are unlikely to single-handedly reverse the war’s trajectory. As one expert noted, a successful counterattack may benefit Ukraine, but it should not be expected to alter the overall course without sustained support and strategic coordination among allies.