Around early 2016, as the campaign that would eventually put him in the White House began, Donald Trump uttered one of his most famous lines, a quip that proved oddly prescient. He claimed he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and not lose any voters. It was hyperbole, yet the sentiment reflected a durable truth in his political ascent, a truth reinforced by a decisive Super Tuesday. The ongoing legal challenges and the 91 charges against him have not diminished his grip on the Republican bench in Congress or his ability to relaunch as a presidential candidate in November. A voter exit poll among Republicans in six states captured a striking idea: would it be acceptable for Trump to be president if he were convicted of a crime? Sixty-one percent said yes.
Exit polls do not reveal absolute truths, but they do reflect trends and public sentiment. Edison Research’s post-election surveys, published by CNN, help contour the state of Trumpism — an inclination that resembles a belief system more than a conventional ideology, one that again threatens to seize the reins of the world’s most powerful nation. As noted, most Republican voters would back a convicted criminal. In California, that percentage rose to 68 percent. Seen from afar, it could appear the party has misplaced its moral compass in favor of a personality cult built around a single figure.
Yet that would be only a partial truth, because another finding shows that 58 percent of Super Tuesday Republican voters believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election through illegitimate means. In other words, a majority has bought into the “big lie” that Trump keeps propagating, despite repeated courtroom discrediting. In Iowa, the share climbed to 66 percent; in New Hampshire, the lowest was 51 percent. This suggests that many conservatives are not losing touch with reality but instead believe the 2020 election was stolen and the current investigations amount to political persecution by the very institutions that conspired to topple him at the time.
Top concerns among Republicans
Economy and immigration sit at the top of Republican voters’ worries, ahead of foreign policy or abortion. The same electorate that mostly favors deporting millions of undocumented migrants rather than offering pathways to regularize their status aligns with the stance preached by its leader. The core Trump supporters are those who identify as very conservative and who feel frustrated with the current state of affairs.
The big question for November is what the disaffected Republicans will do with Trump — those who have leaned toward Nikki Haley or stayed home in recent weeks. Democrats hope to win over those voters in the suburbs, among women, or among conservatives with higher education. But looking back to 2016, not many should expect miracles. Back then, when Trump had already reshaped the political landscape, only six percent of Republicans ultimately voted for Biden.
Another alarming trend for the Democrats is the shift of working-class voters toward the GOP, a tectonic movement in recent American politics. Democrats risk losing one of their traditional bases as white workers move away. Historical parallels exist with Nixon and Bush Sr., but Trump appears to have intensified the pattern by embracing grievances tied to globalization, China, and elite circles that many feel mistreat them.
Widening the concern, more than one-fifth of Black voters and a smaller but growing share of Hispanic voters appear open to Trump, according to the latest polls, marking a significant shift from 2020. Among Black voters, support for Trump exceeds 20 percent, a notable rise from about 12 percent in 2020, while Hispanic support is narrowing the gap, with some surveys showing Biden trailing by less than ten points in that demographic, compared with a much larger gap four years ago.
These dynamics illustrate a country that is deeply divided along economic lines and perceptions of legitimacy. The conversation around who represents working people, and how immigration policy should be crafted, continues to define the Republican and Democratic battles as November nears. Attribution: Edison Research data reported by CNN and related polling summaries.