Running a toy business through a tight five-week peak season is a high-stakes challenge. It requires precise risk assessment because even a single misstep can be costly in today’s climate, where consumer behavior is increasingly volatile. The combination of growing e-commerce competition and economic uncertainty creates a scenario that resembles a perfect storm, pushing underprepared firms toward trouble.
That is the reality facing the toy store sector, according to Iberinform, a subsidiary of Crédito y Caución. The data indicate that roughly one in five toy retailers is exposed to elevated or maximum risk of nonpayment. Specifically, 21% of toy shops nationwide and up to 22% in Alicante province are in a sensitive situation, positioned several points above the average risk level across industries, as Iberinform notes.
Industry observers point to a major structural shift: the interruption and acceleration of e-commerce is consuming a larger slice of total sales every year, increasing by 47 percent last year alone, according to NPD consulting data. While some firms have already embraced this transition, smaller operators are finding it harder to compete within the evolving landscape.
To this, one must add the supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs that emerged last year, along with inflation-driven uncertainty in household purchasing power. These factors delayed purchases for many families, which weakened the early campaign season and dampened overall demand as people waited to gauge the economic outlook.
Iberinform notes that many toy stores still manage to operate with some flexibility in their treasury management, even as cost pressures mount. The sector saw a squeeze in margins during the pandemic, with average trade margins sliding from 4.7% to just over 3% between 2019 and 2021 after a particularly tough 2020.
fragmented sector
The toy store market remains highly fragmented. Almost all players are micro and small businesses (96%), with only about 3% classified as medium-sized and a mere 1% as large operations. Geographically, Madrid houses 21% of all Spanish toy stores, followed by Barcelona at 13%, with Alicante, Malaga, Valencia and Seville each accounting for around 4% to 5% of the total. The distribution highlights how regional market dynamics shape risk exposure and growth opportunities in this niche.
Rising inflation consumes recovery in toy sales
Across the provinces, non-payment risk tends to be above average. In Madrid and Valencia, nonpayment risk approaches 24%; in Barcelona, Malaga and Seville it sits near 23%; and in Alicante it reaches around 22%. A further element in the credit risk profile is the share of companies with high or maximum default risk. In the early years of operation, about 30% of young firms face elevated risk, but this figure declines to around 14% for companies aged 11–25 years and to roughly 16% for firms older than 25 years. These patterns suggest that experience and scale can help mitigate some financial stress, even amid sustained inflation and shifting consumer demand.