An International Science Council panel of experts spanning public health, virology, economics, behavioral sciences, ethics, and sociology examined how the COVID-19 pandemic could unfold over the next five years. The comprehensive report, published by the council, highlights three distinct scenarios that reflect varying levels of vaccine uptake, global cooperation, and political will.
In the first scenario, if adult vaccination coverage reaches about 80%, the spread of the virus is expected to be largely controlled. This level of protection could stabilize economies, support sustainable development, and improve mental health outcomes by reducing uncertainty and easing social restrictions. The panel notes that high vaccination rates would also facilitate a quicker return to normal routines and bolster long-term resilience against future outbreaks.
In the second scenario, if vaccination rates remain below roughly 70%, the virus could behave like a familiar seasonal illness. Recurrent waves would place ongoing pressure on health systems, requiring continued vaccine updates, regular antiviral development, and substantial investment in healthcare capacity. The analysis emphasizes that persistent disparities in vaccine access could worsen global inequities, with low- and middle-income countries bearing a disproportionate burden.
The third scenario focuses on the rise of nationalism and populist sentiment. As geopolitical tensions grow, trust between governments and international partners could erode, undermining scientific collaboration and the global vaccine rollout. Under this outcome, vaccination rates could dip below 60%, and access to vaccines and medicines would remain uneven, conferring a heightened risk to vulnerable populations in lower-income nations.
To avoid a repeat of past crises, the panel advocates renewed efforts to strengthen a multilateral system that can address inequalities and coordinate responses. The message is clear: proactive, collective action is essential to prepare for future threats, whether they arise from another pandemic, climate-related events, or conflicts that disrupt global health security.
Officials and researchers are urged to boost cooperation, channel sustained investments into health systems, and integrate scientific advice into policy. The emphasis lies on reducing gaps in education and welfare, ensuring that science serves all people, and building a platform where knowledge and resources can move swiftly across borders in times of need.