Food prices at the end of 2023 showed a rise versus 2022, by about 9% according to the latest November consumer price index. While some products followed the general upward trend, others bucked the trend. Extra virgin olive oil surged by 66.7% and rice jumped as well, yet the overall shopping cart increased by 17.7% last year, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics. Pasta and bread flours fell slightly by 0.4%, while the reopening of grain flows in Ukraine, after the year-long conflict in Eastern Europe, helped the processing industry regain momentum. Notably, the consumption of oils other than olive oil spiked, driving a 29.1% reduction in retail prices despite a near 125% rise in usage. (Source: INE data)
Beyond the official INE figures, wholesale markets have begun reporting price declines for some items. Although these decreases may not have yet appeared in the consumer cart, forecasts point to noticeable reductions in the coming weeks, likely after the Christmas season ends. For instance, aubergine prices are roughly 67% cheaper than December 2022, soft beans on certain platforms show a 46.7% drop, and lemons have fallen by about 30.9% according to weekly data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. (Source: Ministry data)
The most notable declines in fruits and vegetables
Lemon down 30.9%
Granada down 24.4%
Tangerine down 6.4%
Avocado down 3.6%
Banana down 0.7%
Eggplant down 67.4%
Flat green beans down 46.7%
Cucumber down 13.4%
Potato down 12.8%
Green beans down 6.7%
Italian green pepper down 0.8%
Lentils down 0.7%
Staple foods will stay VAT-free through June
The shift toward lower prices for fresh foods has always shown high volatility. Some products rise while others fall, impacting overall affordability. The distribution sector notes that shoppers seek cheaper substitutes and adjust consumption, which translates into price dynamics across categories.
The oil market provides a clear example: stronger olive production nudged consumers toward cheaper oils, boosting demand for other vegetable oils.
Meat and fish prices show the most declines
Eggs from caged hens down 8.8%
Veal cuts from animals aged 12 to 24 months down 7.4%
Free-range eggs down 2.8%
Rabbit down 2.5%
Fresh wild sea bream down 57.5%
Fresh shrimp up 36.8%
Wild sea bream down 29%
Northern tuna down 23.1%
Fresh shrimp down 18.1%
The impact of reduced VAT on food prices
Some assume VAT cuts drive price declines. Yet the consensus from market analysts is that the effect is limited. The main outcome has been moderation of price increases, while the pre-tax price level rose sharply. The temporary VAT reduction, which eliminated VAT on basic foods and offered a 5% discount on oils and pasta, was introduced last year and extended through June. Consumers may not feel a dramatic shift, but the policy helped temper steeper rises.
In assessing these effects, institutions such as the central bank and market regulator have stressed that the distribution sector bears some responsibility for price trends. They acknowledge agricultural costs, energy price shifts, and drought, which raise production costs, as factors behind price movements.
Fats and nuts tied to weight trends
Refined high-oleic sunflower oil down 38.4%
Conventional refined sunflower oil down 30.5%
Refined soybean oil down 20.9%
Unsalted butter down 13.4%
Conventional sunflower seeds down 36.2%
Corn in grain down 27.9%
Market dynamics at work
There are many products that follow their own rhythms, sometimes escaping the control of local producers or distributors. Prices can swing as supply shocks, disease outbreaks, or policy changes affect supply chains. Pork, for example, faced past volatility when disease reduced swine herds, shifting emphasis to other markets. In such moments, certain items may still see strong demand, such as grapes around festive periods, even if they are costly on other days. Consumers adapt, and seasonal patterns can drive unusual price behavior.