Strategy and possibilities as Democrats navigate a potential Biden replacement

Joe Biden’s poor performance against Donald Trump in the June 27 debate sparked a public, widespread conversation. A topic some Democrats and observers had kept quiet for months began to surface: given Biden is 81, should he be the 2024 presidential candidate for the United States?

In a damage-control mode, the administration moved quickly the day after the disaster to slow the backlash. The effort came from Biden himself and Vice President Kamala Harris, with influential figures like Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Jim Clyburn joining, along with Democrats who paused their own presidential ambitions to back the Biden campaign, including California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Yet those early efforts have faded as days pass, and they have not resolved the central question. An increasing number of voices are urging Biden to step aside, joined by some who had defended him, including Pelosi. The most significant blow, however, reportedly came from a pillar of the party, former President Barack Obama, who allegedly told allies that Biden should reconsider the viability of his candidacy, according to The New York Times.

These are the key points to understand the process the Democratic Party would follow to nominate another candidate to face Donald Trump on November 5 and how the selection could unfold.

1. Can Biden be replaced without his consent?

Yes, but practically impossible if he does not voluntarily withdraw. After clinging to the position that he would not quit, the president has lately shown himself more receptive to arguments from those worried that his continuation could hamstring the party. Some U.S. outlets, citing senior party officials, expect Biden to announce his exit this weekend.

The Democratic National Committee could alter rules before the convention, which will be held in Chicago from August 19 to 22, but there is little expectation that such a move would go against Biden’s wishes if he chooses to back an organ whose current makeup is clearly influenced by him.

Nor is a rebellion by the delegates who attend the convention and formalize the nominee expected, given there are about 4,000 delegates and Biden has won 95 percent of the primaries. Rules require delegates to vote in a manner that reflects the will of those who elected them, and those delegates are themselves chosen through party processes.

2. What happens if he withdraws before the convention?

There is no formal mechanism to replace Biden, and with time too short for new primaries, the party would head to an open convention where several candidates would seek the nomination.

For a candidate to even be considered, at least 300 delegates would need to back their candidacy.

Biden could endorse a potential successor, trying to rally support behind that figure, but his backing would not be binding for the delegates.

If no candidate wins on the first ballot, the subsequent rounds would include about 700 superdelegates—party insiders who are not bound by the results of the primaries.

3. And if he withdraws or becomes incapacitated after the convention?

The rules then allow the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to appoint a replacement. The committee’s chair would convene with party leaders in Congress and the Governors Association. Whatever decision they reach would need ratification by the full DNC, which includes state party presidents, vice presidents, and elected members from all states and territories.

4. Who could be the replacement?

Kamala Harris leads the list on paper, given she is the vice president and would assume the presidency if Biden could not continue before the convention. Yet that would not automatically make her the nominee.

If Biden withdrew before the convention, Harris would face scrutiny about the policy path he charted to elevate the vice presidency to the first woman and first person of color in the role. Her approval ratings and polling are challenging in potential head-to-head matchups with Trump.

Other prominent names in the mix include several governors, such as Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and J. B. Pritzker of Illinois. Projections vary, and none of the alternative candidates is guaranteed victory in a contested nomination process.