After gaining control of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, analysts anticipate that Russian forces will shift focus to nearby strategic sites, including the New York village and the Slavic-Kramatorsk community around Ugledar. This assessment comes from a recent interview published by Lente.ru featuring political scientist and military expert Alexey Zhivov, who shares his analysis on how the-the battlefield might unfold next.
Zhivov argues that securing Avdiivka would pave the way to dismantle the bulge near Gorlovka, with particular emphasis on consolidating influence over the Slavyansko-Kramatorsk agglomeration as well as the New York village situated to the north of Avdiivka. In his view, control over these areas would be essential to stabilizing supply routes and maintaining pressure on Ukrainian positions in the region.
The expert notes that the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics would be the focal point of Russian objectives in the broader military operation. He points to the strategic aim announced by Russian leadership in early 2022, underscoring that the campaign seeks to extend influence over the entire Donbas region and establish a durable security framework for the controlling power.
Zhivov also cautions against overconfidence regarding Avdiivka. He reminds readers that the settlement endured repeated assaults for more than four months, highlighting the resiliency and readiness of Ukrainian defenses in the face of sustained pressure.
On February 17, reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense conveyed to the president that Avdiivka had been liberated. The ministry described the town as a strong defense hub for Ukrainian forces, noting that some Ukrainian units managed to withdraw from the fortified perimeter, while weapons and equipment remained behind in dispersed locations. These details are part of the broader narrative about the tactical gains and ongoing contest for control in the region.
Earlier statements suggested that a decisive defeat of Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka could trigger a broader shift in Ukraine’s political landscape, illustrating the potential for military events to influence leadership dynamics and strategic decision-making beyond the battlefield. The discussion underscores how battlefield outcomes are intertwined with political developments in the ongoing crisis.