In Spain, leaders of business and finance note a year that, by many measures, resembles a solid phase for companies overall. Josep Oliu Creus, a prominent banker, spoke in Zaragoza on Tuesday, signaling that the growth factor in the country was weaker but still surprising, with estimates trending upward from 0.9% to a range around 2%. He emphasized that demand had pulled more strongly than expected during the period.
Oliu was the central figure at an economic gathering hosted at the headquarters of CEOE Aragón and co-organized with the Aragonese College of Economists and the regional business confederation under the banner Facing a New Banking Paradigm. In his remarks, he laid out an overview of Spain’s economic landscape and conveyed cautious optimism about the current hurdles, noting that three years of disruptions have now passed since supply shocks in Europe, particularly in Spain, began to bite.
He acknowledged that the health crisis left a lasting impact in sectors such as tourism and hospitality, but those very sectors are now among the fastest to recover and grow. The speaker pointed out that the toll from the crisis has diminished, even as the path to full recovery remains uneven across industries.
Inflation and the Pandora’s box
On the inflationary trajectory, Oliu described the first hit as stemming from the supply chain disruption and the second from the energy crisis linked to the war in Ukraine. He argued that central banks have limited tools to counteract the broad forces at work. Monetary policy exists, he said, but inflation behaves like Pandora’s box: easy to unleash and very hard to reseal. The process, he added, will take time.
Regarding banking and credit conditions, he noted that the period of negative real rates is over and he could not predict its return unless a new major crisis appeared on the horizon. He also cautioned that the sharp and rapid rise in interest rates had created a shock to expectations and some hesitation around major investment decisions.
There exists a cautious climate around certain investments, and the idea of buying a home is sometimes seen as a bet on softer money conditions. Yet there is reason for confidence as the market appears to be navigating toward a renewed flow of investment that is expected to pick up in 2024 as rates stabilize.
He also expressed belief that inflation could moderate, noting that the initial drivers of the surge—raw materials and energy—have cooled somewhat. He suggested that a real drop in purchasing power, which was more typical of 2022 due to the lag between prices and wages, may not recur in 2023 as the balance starts to shift.
The banker praised the 2023–2025 framework recently agreed upon by Work and Collective Bargaining entities, describing it as a strong foundation that provides stability for the near term and contributes to a predictable operating environment for both business and workers.
During his Zaragoza visit, the Catalan financier highlighted his routine travels through the Aragonese capital, commuting by train to Madrid or Barcelona several times a week. He emphasized that the city deserved better rail service, noting that occasional stoppages disrupt business and travel alike. He added that Zaragoza is a vibrant city with a dynamic economy and a future-oriented outlook, attracting a broad base of customers who believe in its continued growth and potential.