Josep Olíu, the chairman of Banco Sabadell, spoke on Tuesday about the state of the Spanish economy. He did not endorse the idea that the government should sign off on every plan but made clear his own view: the economy is moving forward in a positive direction, and the risk of a short-term recession seems unlikely in his assessment.
This point was raised during his participation as the guest of honor at the General Assembly of the Alicante State Institute of Economic Research, Ineca, where he spoke with Tony Cabot, the manager of the BİLGİ Club.
Olíu commented that Spain is not behaving like a motorcycle that suddenly stalls. He noted that most government ministries have supplied optimistic projections. The country’s GDP growth of about 2.3 percent stands well above the euro area average and higher than the early-year expectations of around 1.3 percent. He also suggested that the growth figure could be closer to 2.6 percent in a favorable scenario.
Spain, he insisted, is not in crisis. Policy measures taken after the pandemic, together with a resumption of supply chains, have enabled a faster recovery. The recovery comprises two major sectors, tourism and the automotive industry. Demand remains robust both domestically and internationally, keeping Spain competitive. He recalled that after the pandemic people sought mobility and leisure, benefits that the country has been able to capitalize on.
At Ineca’s council gathering, a moment captured by Pilar Cortes showed the ongoing discussion around the country’s economic trajectory.
Looking ahead to September, Olíu warned that a disaster would be unlikely, pointing to several indicators. Financial defaults have not risen, and consumer credit is reemerging as CPI declines, helping incomes and boosting workers’ expectations.
risks
Still, he did not shy away from listing risk factors. Excessive public debt remains a concern as new regional administrations form and the next general government takes shape. He said the world and European markets will not tolerate deficits outside the stability framework, calling that a real constraint. He added that reviewing certain expenses will be politically difficult but necessary for responsible leadership.
On inflation, Olíu believes the peak in energy prices has likely passed, yet core inflation remains high, complicating any rapid drop in rates. He does not expect the European Central Bank to raise rates well above 4 percent, but he also thinks it will take longer than some analysts predict for rates to ease.
Regarding Alicante’s economy, Sabadell’s president sees a period of favorable cyclical momentum despite structural challenges tied to tourism and other issues highlighted earlier by Ineca’s president, Nacho Amirola. Problems such as low per capita income and productivity persist, but Olíu emphasized the province’s overall potential and its diversified economy driven by an entrepreneurial spirit.
Sabadell earns 4% less under the weight of State tax
On the bank’s plans in Alicante, Olíu outlined Sabadell’s aim to remain a reference bank in the province. He noted that CAM’s legacy left Sabadell with a significant presence, with about 40 percent of individuals and 25 percent of companies in the region holding accounts at the bank, and Alicante contributing around 10 percent of the group’s total business. The bank intends to keep promoting this footprint.
“CAM consolidated Sabadell as a major national bank,” Olíu remarked, saying there is no regret about acquiring the assets of the former Caja Mediterráneo. He described the acquisition as the defining move of his career at the bank and a moment that solidified Sabadell’s position in the national banking landscape.
He also stated that there is no reason to relocate the headquarters from Alicante, a decision he reaffirmed in the context of regional politics since 2017.