Aleksey Zavyalov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Earth Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, discussed the implications of the February earthquakes in Turkey in an interview with Pravda.Ru. He suggested that seismic events and their aftershocks in the region could continue for an extended period, potentially more than a year, and he referenced the predictions of Turkish geophysicist Ahmet Ercan in framing his assessment. Zavyalov indicated that earthquakes of substantial magnitude, such as a 7.4 event affecting parts of Turkey, might have long aftershock sequences that persist for two to three years or longer, depending on the specific fault dynamics and geological conditions of the affected zones.
He cautioned that aftershocks can endure for several years, emphasizing the importance of monitoring in the affected corridor. While acknowledging the colleague’s forecast, Zavyalov noted that it could reflect either extensive personal experience or an interpretation requiring further verification. The expert also pointed out that the region where the disaster struck is historically seismically active, a factor that commonly influences the likelihood and persistence of aftershock activity. This acknowledgment underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and continuous seismic surveillance in areas with a long-running history of earthquakes.
On the morning of February 6, a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck Turkey, with the epicenter located in the Pazarcık district of Kahramanmaraş. The tremors were felt across neighboring provinces, including Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Kayseri, Mersin, Trabzon, and Urfa. Authorities rapidly escalated the alert level in response to the event, while emergency services and researchers conducted rapid damage assessments and began arranging relief operations. The death toll and casualty figures evolved throughout the day as responders reached affected communities and gathered data, illustrating the scale and impact of the disaster. This event reinforced the broader pattern of seismic risk in the region and highlighted the necessity for sustained regional resilience measures, early warning systems, and long-term rebuilding plans that consider the potential for repeated strong quakes and their aftershocks over an extended timeframe. Attribution: this summary synthesizes contemporary reporting and expert commentary on the seismic sequence and its regional implications.