Parliamentary arithmetic remains unsettled, and weeks will pass before the political map of the new European Parliament takes final shape. Yet the latest European elections offer clear takeaways: the traditional coalition of center-right, social democrats, and liberals holds around 400 seats and can reassemble its pact. A tide of far-right parties is growing, threatening to erode the centrists further unless they expand their reach to other groups like the greens, or struggle to build pro-European majorities in a more tense landscape. In this shift, three figures emerge strengthened: Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Marine Le Pen of France, and Ursula von der Leyen, the incumbent candidate to lead the European Commission.
What will the final election result look like?
The provisional result, refreshed on Monday, places the European People’s Party at the top with 186 seats, ahead of the Socialists and Democrats with 134, then Renew Europe with 79, the European Conservatives and Reformists with 73, Identity and Democracy with 58, the Greens with 53, and European Left with 36. Not far off, 101 seats are currently allocated to Non-Inscrits and other new formations entering the chamber, including a notable Spanish party. Final tallies may shift slightly since they hinge on provisional outcomes and pre-election polls in Ireland that will not be fully counted before Tuesday night.
This snapshot, however, points to a parliament that will require coalition-building and strategic alliances to govern effectively. The patterns now suggest a house where the traditional bloc still dominates, but its margins will depend on appetite for cooperation with greens or liberal forces, and on whether new center-right or right-wing groupings find common ground.
How might the groups be reconfigured?
Parliaments groups are formed by political affinity, needing at least 23 MEPs from 7 member states to create a group. At present, seven potential groups exist. Talks began this Monday to reconfigure the balance. The logical expectation is that center-right, social democrats, liberals, and greens will remain together, though their membership may shift slightly. The big unknown is whether the European Conservatives and Reformists, led by Meloni, and Identity and Democracy, led by Le Pen, will merge into a single ultraconservative and far-right bloc, continue separately, or give rise to a new third right-wing party. Several diplomatic sources view a grand alliance or a third bloc as unlikely, though a union that gathered 131 or more seats could challenge the social democrats. “Le Pen is keen on securing a mandate and gaining credibility, but Meloni would risk credibility by allying with a toxic right, so the calculus is delicate,” one senior official noted. “Meloni does not seem to want a toxic right with Le Pen.”
What roles do Orbán and Germany’s AfD play?
Among the Non-Inscrits, Hungary’s Fidesz, led by Viktor Orbán, holds 10 seats, while Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has 15. AfD was expelled from its previous alliance after provocatively xenophobic remarks by its leader, and may rejoin if the issue is resolved, shifting the balance among the non-aligned. Fidesz’s exit from the European People’s Party was a strategic move to avoid expulsion and to seek entry into the European Conservatives and Reformists. Such shifts would enable ultraconservatives to become a third force and potentially push toward cooperation with social democrats if new members join. A Greek anti-immigrant party, Fonis Logikis, led by Afroditi Latinopoulou, signals alignment with Meloni. In total, more than twenty formations could seek a political family and alter the weight and influence of the blocs.
What are the timelines and why does being in a group matter?
Group formation can happen at any point during the legislature. There is no hard deadline, but those who wish to have a voice at the table and a seat in the parliament’s leadership must declare before the plenary opening in Strasbourg on 16 July. The timetable from the European Parliament anticipates groups forming between 18 June (PPE) and 3 July (ID). In the days between, the remaining groups would organize. A larger group means more influence in committees, more high-level positions, and more speaking time in debates.
How does chamber composition affect the president’s selection?
The European elections do not only determine the deputies who sit in the Parliament; they also set in motion the negotiations for top leadership across the European institutions. The first piece in this puzzle is the presidency of the European Commission. The favored candidate remains the German Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate for the center-right, now strengthened by the Sunday result. The decision rests with European leaders who will meet informally on 17 June to start the debate. Formal decisions could come as early as 27 or 28 June at the traditional European Council gathering.
What support would von der Leyen need?
If she seeks renewal, and provided she secures backing from the European leaders, she would need at least 361 of the 720 seats in the Parliament. Given the 400 seats won by the traditional coalition, such a path is feasible. “My sense is to begin with social democrats and socialists and with liberals or Renew Europe because we have worked well together and know what we can count on,” she remarked from Berlin as she argued for this coalition. Possible defections in a chamber lacking strict voting discipline push von der Leyen to reach out to other allies and aim for around 420 seats. In this context, Meloni’s 24 deputies or the Greens, who have signaled openness to supporting a credible candidate, could become pivotal. However, the greens and liberals share a red line: avoid deals with ECR and ID. The vote could occur as soon as the chamber is formed on 18 July, or move to the September plenary if necessary. “It’s too early to say. If she has the votes in July, she will present herself; otherwise, she will wait for September. It’s unlikely she will gamble on the summer,” explained Parliament sources.
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