There is broad consensus that Russia possesses the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, followed by the United States and China. When discussing Russia’s arsenal it helps to start with fundamentals, given how difficult it is to obtain precise numbers. Transparency from the Russian government remains limited. Independent research bodies, such as SIPRI, attempt to provide reasoned assessments of Russia’s modernization by examining satellite imagery, official statements, industry publications, and interviews with military experts, among other sources of intelligence.
Expect tension to flare periodically, especially after statements by Russian leaders about nuclear capabilities directed at the West. At times there are rumors about mobilization within Russia. President Vladimir Putin confirmed a partial mobilization, describing it as limited to reserve citizens who have served in the armed forces, possess certain military specialties, and hold relevant experience. The move has raised concerns among the public, as security forces in some regions conducted arrests during protests.
Current estimates of Russia’s arsenal, as analyzed by major research institutions, distinguish between strategic and non-strategic roles. Strategic weapons are intended for use against high-value targets within a broader strategic plan, such as missile launch sites, command centers, and major population centers. Non-strategic weapons, by contrast, are aimed at supporting conventional forces on the battlefield.
Approximately 4,500 military warheads
According to assessments made in early 2021, Russia possessed about 4,495 nuclear warheads. Roughly 2,585 of these are strategic offensive warheads linked to land-based missiles, submarines, and bomber bases. An estimated 1,910 are non-strategic warheads, with a smaller number actively deployed. A sizable portion of non-strategic warheads is believed to be stored in central facilities, while thousands of retired warheads await dismantling, contributing to a broader inventory in the mid-6,000s range.
Russia abides by the New START agreement
In 2020 Russia continued to meet the limits set by the New START treaty, which caps strategic warheads and delivery systems between Russia and the United States. SIPRI notes that this framework focuses on reducing and controlling strategic forces through verifiable measures and regular reporting.
Strategic nuclear forces
As of January 2021, Russia allocated about 2,585 warheads for use by strategic launchers, including long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). This reflects an increase of roughly 145 warheads since January 2020.
Air-launched nuclear weapons
Regarding air power, Russia maintains a fleet of long-range bombers operated by the Long-Range Aviation Command. The inventory includes roughly 13 Tu-160 bombers and 55 Tu-95MS bombers. The maximum payload capacity for these aircraft approaches 740 nuclear weapons, though only a portion is typically configured for deployment. SIPRI estimates that around 200 of these weapons can be ready for deployment and stored at two strategic bomber bases.
Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles
In January 2021, Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces controlled about 310 ICBMs across several divisions and armies. The highest reported potential warhead capacity hovers around 1,189, but current estimates suggest about 800 warheads are deployed to stay within New START limits. These missiles account for roughly half of Russia’s deployed strategic warheads and reflect a modernization drive that replaces older Soviet designs with newer configurations.
Sea-based nuclear missiles
At the start of 2021, the Russian Navy operated a fleet of 11 ballistic-missile submarines. Each submarine can carry multiple SSBN missiles, with a total possible warhead count near 816. Deployments are adjusted to meet strategic limits, and estimates indicate roughly 624 warheads were actually deployed on patrols.
The Russian Navy is also advancing Poseidon, a long-range, nuclear-propelled torpedo intended for use on future special-purpose submarines. This weapon is part of an ongoing effort to diversify delivery options for strategic forces.
Non-strategic nuclear weapons
As of early 2021, Russia maintained about 1,910 non-strategic warheads, with a small upward change from the prior year. Most of these weapons are dual-capable, able to carry conventional payloads as well. They are designed for use by surface ships, submarines, aircraft, air defense systems, and various ground platforms.