New assessments from Washington and London describe a growing stream of February reports about a Western expansion of the Ukraine conflict, including warnings about potential nuclear use by the Kremlin.
The Financial Times reported on February 27 that it had examined Russian war-game documents dating back to 2008. The papers outline a doctrine that has been in place for years, suggesting Moscow would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in certain war scenarios.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think tank with offices in Washington, Bahrain, Berlin and Singapore, warned on March 1 of fresh incentives for selective, limited nuclear use by Russian planners.
Between these notes, a renewed Russian statement from Vladimir Putin raised the question of nuclear action if NATO troops enter Ukraine.
When would Moscow push the button
Twenty-nine military reports reviewed by a major American newspaper characterize Moscow as treating nuclear arms as another tool on the battlefield. The Pentagon estimates more than 2,000 tactical warheads exist. Those numbers exceed NATO’s stockpiles for similar weapons, though when total counts include strategic warheads as well, Western arsenals outpace Russia.
The documents outline red lines such as an incursion into Russian territory or the loss of about one-fifth of the strategic submarine fleet. They point to moments when Moscow might be inclined to use a nuclear option. The papers cite Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, noting that the operational threshold for nuclear use appears low if conventional means fail to achieve the desired result.
The ISS report, signed by William Alberque, director of Arms Control, Strategy and Technology, also highlights a motive for Russia to employ nuclear weapons in a controlled way to rapidly erode Western resolve.
Alberque argues that Moscow tolerates higher casualties than Western states. If Western leaders consider unacceptable losses to force concessions, Russia could be drawn to using nuclear arms to compel capitulation while avoiding a full-scale nuclear confrontation.
As a last resort
Spanish analysts contribute to the discussion. In a report for the Institute of Strategic Studies in Spain, Colonel José Pardo Santayana notes that in 2020 Putin spoke of a modernizing Russian strategic force with plans to increase that share in 2021.
Pardo Santayana notes Russia fields about 310 intercontinental ballistic missiles with bases capable of launching up to 1,189 warheads; nine submarines carry missiles with up to nine warheads each; and as many as 70 strategic bombers can deploy 16 nuclear cruise missiles.
He concludes that while the consequences are grave, the notion of Moscow using a nuclear weapon is not contemplated in the current operational context, except as a last resort in the face of a military failure and its impact on the Kremlin’s power structure.
Arsenals
According to SIPRI, there are roughly 12,500 nuclear weapons worldwide. By country, the United States and Russia hold the largest inventories, about 5,244 and 5,889 warheads respectively; the United Kingdom about 225, France 290, China 410, India 164, Pakistan 170, North Korea around 30, and Israel about 90, figures also echoed by the Federation of American Scientists.
The totals include a variable number of tactical warheads, whose definition varies by source. These totals are not fully covered by older arms control agreements, complicating direct comparisons.
Generally, a strategic weapon targets military or civilian objects beyond a conventional front line. A tactical nuclear weapon is designed for battlefield use, such as striking advancing armor columns. Yet the boundary between tactical and strategic can blur when a small-yield weapon is used far from a combat zone, depending on the attacker’s intent.
Overall, SIPRI notes the United States deploys about 100 tactical bombs at six bases in Turkey, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Italy, with another 100 on U.S. soil. Russia is believed to possess about 1,816 tactical weapons, though Moscow does not publicly disclose or inspect their arsenal.
Space weapons
Western intelligence now monitors not only traditional warheads but also potential uses of nuclear energy in a broader Russian strategy under Vladimir Putin.
U.S. intelligence has warned about possible Russian capabilities to blind or disable Western satellites. Reuters reported in February on a House Intelligence Committee briefing where Representative Mike Turner described this as a grave national security threat.
The concept involves space-based devices leveraging nuclear energy to block or disrupt satellite signals, blind optical sensors, or damage circuits through electromagnetic pulses.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington does not view this as an active capability yet. The Outer Space Treaty, in effect since 1967 and signed by Russia, the United States and other powers, prohibits placing nuclear weapons in orbit.