The North Pole has changed drastically in recent years. Climate change has pushed Arctic conditions to warmer extremes, turning the region into a place where rain falls more often, ice forms unpredictably, and wildlife adapts to new realities. Yet there is reason for cautious optimism about reindeer, described by scientists as potential climate winners due to their surprising resilience in the face of a warming Arctic.
Climate trends are creating longer spells of milder weather in the Arctic. A dedicated study by the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU) examined how reindeer in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago cope with these shifting conditions and what this could mean for their future.
In this polar zone, rain increasingly replaces snow, warmer days melt the snowpack, and cold spells refreeze water anew. The landscape thus oscillates between thaw and freeze, a cycle that reshapes food availability for reindeer and other wildlife.
As ice forms more frequently, the ground becomes harder to forage on. Reindeer, once able to paw through fluffy snow, now face a crust of ice that blocks access to the plants beneath—posing a significant food challenge during many winters.
Only a few years ago the ground was often blanketed with soft snow, which eased grazing and movement. Today, the switch to harder ice makes it tougher for animals to reach sustenance, forcing them to adapt their foraging strategies and energy use.
NMBU researchers have spent a quarter century observing reindeer. Their program includes tracking population trends and weighing approximately 1,000 female individuals. Findings from this long-term work were published in Global Change Biology, highlighting notable shifts in population dynamics and body condition under milder winters.
growing population
Historically, icy winters and limited plant availability kept reindeer numbers in check. Populations rose for several years when conditions allowed, only to decline when ice locked food sources away. A notable shift has occurred over the past decade: the system is changing in ways that favor reindeer, despite increasingly icy conditions.
Remarkably, the reindeer population has continued to grow through the last ten years, even with harsher winters. In spring, individuals tend to be heavier than in prior years, suggesting that animals are coping well with the altered climate and the longer, milder seasons in Svalbard.
Leif Egil Loe, a professor of Wildlife Biology at NMBU, notes that late snowfall years often leave reindeer gaining weight—about five pounds more on average, with a ten percent increase by the end of winter. The extra fat reserve appears linked to shifts in the availability of food, as plant growth responds to warming temperatures and extended growing seasons.
The growing season in Svalbard typically runs from early June to mid-August, though year-to-year variation is common. Warmer springs promote earlier plant emergence and longer life cycles, creating a feed-rich window that can extend beyond the usual bounds of summer in a milder year.
Autumns that arrive earlier and snowfalls that arrive later help offset winter ice, contributing to a larger overall food supply for reindeer. Loe argues that this combination may help explain why the population in the study area has nearly tripled over the past thirty years.
A changing ecosystem
The Arctic ecosystem is shifting as climate change unfolds. Svalbard stands as a bellwether for broader Arctic changes, with researchers like Kari Klanderud, a professor of plant ecology at NMBU, predicting that the entire region will look quite different in the coming decades.
Scientists studying how warmer conditions affect Scandinavian plant communities note that gentler weather can favor grasses and flowering species, potentially at the expense of algae and other foundational organisms that currently shape the food web. As vegetation responds to climate drivers, the available forage for herbivores like reindeer shifts accordingly.
Changes in plant communities may reinforce themselves because altered soils feed back into vegetation patterns, suggesting a continued rise in reindeer foraging opportunities as the ecosystem rebalances. In addition to plant shifts, there is potential for more winter grazing in the future, as higher winter temperatures could open up new pastures instead of locking them in ice.
Loe cautions that even with a brighter outlook for reindeer, not all signals are positive. Animal activity levels can drop sharply when temperatures rise above about 12 degrees Celsius, a trend that is becoming more frequent as climate change progresses. While the species has been viewed as a climate winner over the past decades and food supplies may increase, physiological stress from changes in seasonality could become more evident in the near term.
Overall, the study underscores how interconnected climate, vegetation, and herbivore dynamics are in the Arctic. The unfolding patterns point to a future where reindeer populations may fare better than feared in some respects, yet face new physiological challenges as temperature regimes and ice cover continue to shift. Marked observations from the long-running NMBU project provide a nuanced view of resilience, adaptation, and the unknowns that accompany a warming Arctic.
Key takeaway: long-term monitoring continues to reveal that reindeer show surprising adaptability to evolving winter conditions, and plant community changes may sustain herds in a reshaped Arctic landscape. The ongoing research emphasizes the need for continued observation to understand how these animals navigate energy budgets, forage availability, and seasonal timing as ecosystems adjust to climate change.
Source note: Global Change Biology study by NMBU researchers, summarizing a multi-decade field program and its implications for Arctic herbivores. This synthesis reflects ongoing analyses conducted by the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and collaborators to illuminate the path forward for reindeer in Svalbard.
Publication context and study framework are described in the cited body of work; researchers emphasize cautious interpretation and the necessity for continued data collection to unravel the complex interactions among climate, vegetation, and animal populations.