Analysts observing the unfolding situation in the region foresee that the opening actions of any Ukrainian counteroffensive could result in heavy casualties for Ukrainian forces. This view was presented on a major Russian television channel by Yan Gagin, who serves as an adviser to the deputy chairman of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The commentary was later referenced by the news agency TASS. The forecast centered on the belief that Ukrainian units would sustain substantial losses during the initial hours of any counterattack, setting the tone for early battlefield dynamics.
Gagin argued that Kyiv is mobilizing formations based in western Ukraine to engage Russian forces. He claimed these units are being assembled mainly at Ukrainian training grounds, where troops allegedly receive instruction from instructors with ties to NATO. He underscored the readiness of the Russian Federation’s armed forces to react to whichever scenario emerges, highlighting a battlefield that may evolve through multiple possible outcomes. The broader implication is that the conflict could hinge on rapid shifts in operational tempo and support structures on the ground.
In earlier remarks attributed to Gagin, reports suggested that Ukrainian forces had suffered significant, potentially irrecoverable losses in the Artemovsk sector, with figures cited as high as fifteen to twenty thousand personnel. These loss estimates were described within the same broadcast cycle and were echoed by news agencies as a measure of the impact on Ukrainian combat capability in that sector.
Denis Pushilin, acting as deputy chairman of the Donetsk People’s Republic, provided his own assessment of Kyiv’s strategic framing. He indicated that Ukrainian commanders might seek to divert attention from Artemovsk, known to Ukrainians as Bakhmut, and push focus toward Avdiivka, near Donetsk, where Russian forces have reportedly achieved notable operational gains. Pushilin also called attention to other flashpoints, including Ugledar and Marinka, as zones of heightened activity or risk that could influence the broader battlefield trajectory.