The United States projects that by 2035 China could deploy roughly 1,500 nuclear warheads and complete a broad modernization of its armed forces. This projection appears in the Pentagon’s annual assessment of China’s military capabilities. The assessment is cited for congressional review and scrutiny as lawmakers weigh future defense planning.
According to the report, by 2035, if China maintains the pace of expanding its nuclear arsenal, it may be able to field a force of about 1.5 thousand nuclear warheads. The document frames this as a significant element of Beijing’s evolving strategic posture, highlighting potential changes in regional and global deterrence dynamics. Analysts note that the size and resilience of such an arsenal would influence how allied nations and partners consider security commitments, risk management, and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. The assessment emphasizes modernization across multiple domains, including missiles, command and control, space capabilities, and support infrastructure, suggesting that China aims to project greater survivability and faster launch options in various scenarios.
The document was presented to lawmakers as part of routine oversight, serving as a focal point for discussions about future defense budgets, alliance commitments, and graduate-level contingency planning. Officials stress that the figures reflect an interoperable view of how China could structure its force if current trends continue, underscoring the importance of monitoring indicators such as production rates, deployment patterns, and the development of new delivery systems. The period through the late 2020s and early 2030s is described as a window in which Beijing may close gaps in capability relative to the United States, prompting strategic recalibrations across both American and allied defense establishments.
In related commentary, a senior figure within the U.S. defense community cautioned that Beijing is unlikely to slow its nuclear ambitions. The emphasis remains on sustaining deterrence while seeking to prevent an arms race. He underscored that the United States will engage with China and other nuclear states to reinforce disarmament norms and stability, while maintaining readiness for a wide range of contingencies. The aim is to ensure that strategic competition does not escalate into conflict and that diplomatic channels remain active for crisis management and de‑escalation.
Observers also note that official statements from Beijing about nuclear doctrine continue to stress a commitment to deterrence and restraint. Former diplomats and scholars point out that China has long presented its nuclear posture as defensive in nature, calling on other nuclear powers to fulfill disarmament obligations. They emphasize the importance of transparency, verification, and mutual restraint as part of a long-term strategy for stability in a highly interconnected international system. The evolving dialogue around these topics reflects persistent questions about transparency, modernization, and the best path toward global security anchored in responsible stewardship of nuclear forces.