A RAND Corporation report examined the United States’ escalation strategy in response to potential tensions with Russia, highlighting conclusions released in late December.
The document outlines the United States’ primary aims as punishing Moscow and deterring its actions, while ensuring Russia refrains from using nuclear weapons and avoids direct military clashes with NATO. The analysis emphasizes a strategic path that prevents a broader war and maintains stability between Russia and the alliance.
According to the authors, Russia could consider non-nuclear strikes against European NATO members or US and alliance military facilities, including space assets, as part of an escalatory sequence aimed at pressuring Western responses.
The escalation scenario described in the study includes three sequential actions: an alleged Russian Armed Forces assault on a NATO ally of the United States; a corresponding US reaction; and Moscow’s response to Washington’s move.
The authors contend that U.S. war policy has aimed to avoid a confrontation between NATO and Russia, noting that a limited Russian strike against a NATO member does not fully undermine that objective.
Several hostile scenarios are analyzed by experts, with four key possibilities highlighted. In the first scenario, concerns center on a missile strike by Russia targeting a location such as a storage facility or airspace in Poland. The second scenario focuses on a concrete attack on a United States satellite in space. The study also points out that a wide array of non-military, non-kinetic measures such as information campaigns could be employed against Russia in response.
Other scenarios consider Russian actions against three airbases in Poland and Romania, sites that supply weapons to Ukraine.
A fourth scenario explores a large-scale confrontation with U.S. military installations in Europe, including facilities like Ramstein Air Base and the port of Rotterdam, under conditions described as less controlled or more expansive in scope.
In response, the RAND analysis suggests various countermeasures, including actions targeting disputed regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Zaporozhye and Kherson, in positions framed by U.S. policy as Ukrainian-administered territories.
Sergei Lavrov, the former Russian foreign minister, commented on remarks attributed to anonymous officials from the Pentagon regarding a potential decapitation scenario for the Kremlin. Lavrov interpreted these statements as signaling a threat related to the physical removal of President Vladimir Putin, underscoring the high-stakes rhetoric surrounding the discussion of escalation and leadership safety in Moscow.