The ruling ultra-conservative party, Law and Justice (PiS), has intensified Poland’s political discourse. In advance of general elections slated for October 15, PiS positions its leadership as a strongman force led by Jarosław Kaczyński, while Mateusz Morawiecki focuses on border security and deterrence. The party accuses the liberal opposition leader, Donald Tusk, of acting as a Brussels or Berlin servant and frames him as aligned with the so-called Confederation, a far-right group viewed as a potential third pillar of power.
Between 1,000 and more soldiers were deployed to reinforce the eastern border, according to Warsaw authorities on Monday. Belarus, the next day, indicated a doubling of those numbers, accompanied by movements of thousands of mercenaries in the area. The Wagner group has reportedly gathered near the border as Moscow’s ally. In a formal statement, the president outlined plans for a general election and specified additional troops for the eastern flank. Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak mentioned the figure rising to 10,000. Alongside strengthening a 400-kilometer border with Belarus, troops will be positioned near Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave. These military announcements were paired with accusations from Kaczyński that Tusk bears responsibility for past defense cuts during his time as prime minister (2007–2014) and for yielding to Brussels and Berlin, a move the PiS leader describes as consent that echoes the stance of Angela Merkel toward Vladimir Putin. Critics argue this narrative reflects a broader blame-game surrounding energy dependence on Russia and the start of the Ukraine conflict.
PiS argues that Tusk’s transition from the Polish government to the presidency of the Council of Europe frames the supposed capitulation. The eight years since PiS took office in 2015 have been marked by a sharp break with Brussels, including controversial judicial reforms seen as limiting judicial independence, a broad critique of media freedom, and restrictions on abortion policy. PiS also touts arming the forces with national resources or with allied support as part of strengthening national defense. NATO’s objective need to bolster the eastern flank is highlighted, and a major military parade in Warsaw is planned to showcase the country’s current defense capabilities.
important choices
Before the president announced the election date, Kaczyński described the vote as the most consequential for Poland since 1989, invoking the moment when neighboring nations challenged the old order and the Iron Curtain fell. The political team around him, including the president associated with PiS, emphasizes the campaign as a critical juncture for the country’s direction. An ongoing referendum is proposed to coincide with the election, touching on issues such as migration and the privatization of state assets, which PiS argues would advance German investor influence over Poland’s sovereignty.
The central refrain in the campaign is Kaczyński’s frequent assertion that Tusk poses the genuine threat to the nation. Morawiecki reinforces the message by labeling the liberal opposition leader as the “face of lies.” The effort to portray Tusk as the enemy is accompanied by messaging designed to reassure supporters about a strong, independent Poland—especially on matters of defense, media freedom, and social policy.
PiS’s strategy also reflects a fear of losing public support as protests over judicial independence, press freedom, and abortion rights have surged in recent times. Public opinion surveys show PiS in the mid-thirties range, with Tusk’s Civic Platform in the mid-twenties, suggesting a potential shift if new political players gain traction. A growing far-right counterpart, the Confederation, advocates stringent asylum and abortion limits, a ban on divorce, and a more assertive Catholic nationalism—an addition that could reshape the political landscape beyond PiS’s traditional base. Poll watchers forecast turnout may exceed twelve percent in some regions.
Analysts note that Kaczyński has intensified his rhetoric to mobilize voters who might otherwise drift away from the party, using language designed to rally the base and attract undecided voters who favor a firm national stance.