The online toy market, once turbocharged by the pandemic, has cooled in the past year. Online sales accounted for about 36% of total toy trade in the most recent period, down from roughly 43% the year before. Shoppers who turned to the web to avoid store closures and infection fears during lockdowns are increasingly returning to brick-and-mortar shops, a shift reflected in current statistics. In the province, industry leaders remain optimistic about a near 4% rise in turnover, supported by stronger momentum late in the prior campaign. Inflation has also nudged families to postpone purchases, softening the impulse to buy early.
Across the board, online toy sales have grown steadily in recent years as channels adapt to evolving commercial trends. The health crisis amplified that trajectory, pushing many parents to rely on digital options to keep children entertained during restrictions. Although stores reopened, online sourcing persisted because of ongoing restrictions and lingering concerns about safety. The surge was notable: online shares rose from about 20% of total toy sales in 2019 to around 40% in a single year, reaching 43% in 2021.
Yet the rise began to level off with the start of the new year. While definitive figures are not yet available, analyses from NPD and the Spanish Toy Manufacturers Association (AEFJ) indicate a possible decline of around seven percentage points. José Antonio Pastor, president of the industry employers’ association, noted that after two years of outsized growth, a normalization makes sense. He added that online sales are here to stay, even as some buyers shift back to physical stores during this latest cycle.
campaign balance
After weeks of uncertainty, the year ended with a positive note for the sector, driven by a surge in last-minute commercial activity. Pastor observed that the seasonality was particularly pronounced; about half of annual sales occurred in the final month, with the week of Three Kings especially busy as stores saw heightened activity.
Pastor links this pattern to inflation. He explained that households faced tighter budgets as costs rose across essential items, from electricity to gas, pushing toy purchases further down the list. This dynamic helped explain why many families waited to buy until later in the year.
In the absence of official data, the market is expected to grow around 2% domestically, with exports shining brighter at roughly 6%. If these projections hold, province-wide turnover would approach 4%, totaling around 470 million euros. About 40% of this figure reflects foreign sales. On a national level, forecasts point to a turnover near 1,645 million euros, with exports representing a similar share.
Looking at concrete company activity, several leaders reported stronger recent weeks. José Miguel Toledo, managing director of Famosa, noted improving business activity and expressed cautious optimism for a modest year-over-year gain. Rafael Rivas, managing director of Miniland, acknowledged a challenging year marked by rising costs and supply chain hurdles but remained hopeful about maintaining solid results as the year progresses.
What lies ahead for 2023 remains uncertain, according to José Antonio Pastor of the AEFJ. He pointed to ongoing geopolitical and economic volatility as a potential headwind. Yet he also emphasized that the recent burst of distribution activity could help reduce stock levels, providing better sales opportunities early in the year.